Astonishing Lie by Hillary regarding Trump "Choke"
James A. Donald
jamesd at echeque.com
Sun Jan 15 19:39:26 PST 2017
On 1/16/2017 11:44 AM, Mirimir wrote:
> What's racist is judging someone,
> based on race. It's unreliable. First, because reliably determining
> someone's race is nontrivial.
It is a lot easier, and a lot more reliable, to determine someone's
race, than to determine their character. And their race often gives a
good enough prediction of certain important aspects of their character.
In particular, in the events leading to the mortgage meltdown, race was
a better predictor of propensity to default on one's mortgage than any
of the permissible credit characteristics.
You are walking down a dark street. Two other people are also walking
down that street. One is a black male, one is a white male. The black
male is quite unlikely to murder you. But if you are worried about
being murdered, and you probably should be, he is one hell of a lot more
likely to murder you than the white male. About thirteen times more
likely in fact.
Similarly, if you are a banker who is worried that someone is going to
blow off his mortgage ... well doubtless there are a lot of blacks,
probably most of those blacks with good credit ratings, who will not
blow off their mortgage. But if someone is black with a good credit
rating, he is one hell of a lot more likely to blow off his mortgage
than someone who is white with a good credit rating.
The more you know about a debtor, the less is race adds to accuracy of
predicting the likelihood of default. But even if you have complete
credit data, race is still substantially predictive. The chance of a
white man and a black man with equal credit ratings defaulting on a
mortgage is far from equal.
Similarly, if a white man and a black man both have long and horrible
criminal records, they are about equally likely to murder you. But if a
white man and a black man both have minor criminal records, the chance
that the black man will go on to commit murder is far from equal.
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