Is a BTC - BCC flippening in the offing?

Fri Aug 18 11:40:24 PDT 2017

On Fri, Aug 18, 2017 at 12:30 PM, juan <juan.g71 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, 18 Aug 2017 09:29:54 -0500
> Steven Schear <schear.steve at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > [Disclosure: I am a strong supporter of L1 (Blockchain scaling)
> > occurring before any L2 (e.g., Segwit, Blockstream, Lightening
> > Network, etc.) is attempted. And even then all L2 must be thoroughly
> > examined not only for technical flaws but for possible misuses
>
>
>         misuses such as? And who is going to do the examination?
>

For example, Lightning Networks, due to the methods of "channel" controls,
can enable fractional reserve of the blockchain assets.

Members of the community with the technical chops do the exams. However,
politics and self-interest being what they are I have little doubt the
debates will be 'lively' and degenerate into the usual ad hominem as
occurred in the lead up to the current fork.

>
> ....
>
>
> >
> > By far the main driver for miners is revenue. In general they will go
> > to whatever blockchain they earn the most. Analysis of the hash power
> > being expended on both chains versus the difficulties and value of
> > each coin showed that the two were converging insofar as mining
> > profitability. There is also an anomalous aspect to the sources of
> > the BCC mining power. Unlike that of BTC, where most of the hashing
> > power is associated with known large mining cartels, the majority of
> > BCC mining is by unknown parties.
>
>
>         lol - there's a different version of that story :
>
>         BCH was created by the monopolistic producer of bitcoin asics
>         - bitmain -  in order to keep using a patented algo. You should
>           know as much...
>

That's one story that has made the rounds. I fully expect that major
cartels and mining rig/ASIV mfg.s are playing every card and pulling out
all the stops in their efforts to maximize profits short- and long-term and
influence the future of cryptocurrencies.

>
>
>
>
> > There has been significant variation
> > of mining power over relatively short intervals on both blockchains.
> > The timing of this variation very much indicates that the miners were
> > attempting to beneficially manipulate both the value of BCC vs. BTC
> > and quickly decrease the mining effort for BCC.
> >
> >                           BTC      BCH       TOT        BTC     BCH
> > BTC       BCH         BTC
> >                            ( Hash Power )
> > ( Difficulty) ( Block Time )    (mempool)
> >
> > 11 August            6600      338       6938         923        115
> > 10.00         21            55
> > 12 August            6199      416       6615         923        115
> > 10.66         20            15
> > 13 August            6808      440       7248         923        115
> >   9.73         18.46       27
> > 14 August            5951      522       6473         923        115
> >  11.07        15.82       47
> > 15 August            6966      647       7591         923        115
> >    9.47        12.85       53
> > 16 August            5984      484       6468         923        115
> >  11.07        17.14       50
> >
> >
> >    - Since 11 August Hash Power on the BCH chain has increased daily.
> >    - Hash power on BTC chain on the other hand fluctuates from day to
> > day, by up to 1000 PH and the mempool continues to grow.
> >
> >
> > The table above are snapshots taken at a point in time each day. Their
> > individual states can be monitored in real time here
> > <https://bitinfocharts.com/>*.  Scroll down to the hash rate. BTC
> > hash rate is down to 4853 PH. This is more than 2000 PH below the
> > table above and the mempool <https://blockchain.info/charts> has now
> > exceeded 65MB. A Death Chain Spiral may have set in but is being
> > "managed".
> >
> > This large fluctuation of BTC hash rate could be the miners preventing
> > difficulty from adjusting downwards, and at the same time growing the
> > mempool. It is also possible that with over 1000 blocks to the next
> > difficulty recalculation, we may not see another difficulty
> > adjustment on BTC anytime soon.
> >
> > It is uncanny that we see very little discussion and debate at the
> > very top. It is as though the NYA agreement have settled everything.
> > However make no mistake. What seem calm belies what is happening in
> > the background. Like a duck on the water paddling furiously
> > underneath.
> >
> > Over at r/bitcoin talk seems to center around price and technology.
> > Nothing about any negativity, usability or the growing mempool.
> > Censorship of robust discussions is just downright deceitful.
> > Especially if it is the de facto forum. It must quit being a
> > propaganda organ. There will be consequences.
> >
> > The people around Segwit may be frantically on the phone, fax and
> > email arguing and pleading with the miners. They can see the writing
> > on the wall. Only 124 blocks were found in the last 24 hours. Block
> > time have increased to 11 minutes and the mempool is in excess of
> > 70MB. It is "too little too late". For many of the miners "Revenge is
> > a dish best eaten cold".
> >
> > Steve
>
>

-- 
Creator of the Warrant Canary and the Street Performer Protocol. Wi-Fi
standard spec. creation participant and co-developer of eCache. Director at
MojoNation and Cylink. Founding member of IFCA and GNU Radio.

Shameless self-promoter :)
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: text/html
Size: 7298 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <https://lists.cpunks.org/pipermail/cypherpunks/attachments/20170818/96604b63/attachment.txt>