Is a BTC - BCC flippening in the offing?

juan juan.g71 at gmail.com
Fri Aug 18 10:30:34 PDT 2017


On Fri, 18 Aug 2017 09:29:54 -0500
Steven Schear <schear.steve at gmail.com> wrote:

> [Disclosure: I am a strong supporter of L1 (Blockchain scaling)
> occurring before any L2 (e.g., Segwit, Blockstream, Lightening
> Network, etc.) is attempted. And even then all L2 must be thoroughly
> examined not only for technical flaws but for possible misuses 


	misuses such as? And who is going to do the examination? 


....


> 
> By far the main driver for miners is revenue. In general they will go
> to whatever blockchain they earn the most. Analysis of the hash power
> being expended on both chains versus the difficulties and value of
> each coin showed that the two were converging insofar as mining
> profitability. There is also an anomalous aspect to the sources of
> the BCC mining power. Unlike that of BTC, where most of the hashing
> power is associated with known large mining cartels, the majority of
> BCC mining is by unknown parties. 


	lol - there's a different version of that story :

	BCH was created by the monopolistic producer of bitcoin asics
	- bitmain -  in order to keep using a patented algo. You should
	  know as much...




> There has been significant variation
> of mining power over relatively short intervals on both blockchains.
> The timing of this variation very much indicates that the miners were
> attempting to beneficially manipulate both the value of BCC vs. BTC
> and quickly decrease the mining effort for BCC.
> 
>                           BTC      BCH       TOT        BTC     BCH
> BTC       BCH         BTC
>                            ( Hash Power )
> ( Difficulty) ( Block Time )    (mempool)
> 
> 11 August            6600      338       6938         923        115
> 10.00         21            55
> 12 August            6199      416       6615         923        115
> 10.66         20            15
> 13 August            6808      440       7248         923        115
>   9.73         18.46       27
> 14 August            5951      522       6473         923        115
>  11.07        15.82       47
> 15 August            6966      647       7591         923        115
>    9.47        12.85       53
> 16 August            5984      484       6468         923        115
>  11.07        17.14       50
> 
> 
>    - Since 11 August Hash Power on the BCH chain has increased daily.
>    - Hash power on BTC chain on the other hand fluctuates from day to
> day, by up to 1000 PH and the mempool continues to grow.
> 
> 
> The table above are snapshots taken at a point in time each day. Their
> individual states can be monitored in real time here
> <https://bitinfocharts.com/>*.  Scroll down to the hash rate. BTC
> hash rate is down to 4853 PH. This is more than 2000 PH below the
> table above and the mempool <https://blockchain.info/charts> has now
> exceeded 65MB. A Death Chain Spiral may have set in but is being
> "managed".
> 
> This large fluctuation of BTC hash rate could be the miners preventing
> difficulty from adjusting downwards, and at the same time growing the
> mempool. It is also possible that with over 1000 blocks to the next
> difficulty recalculation, we may not see another difficulty
> adjustment on BTC anytime soon.
> 
> It is uncanny that we see very little discussion and debate at the
> very top. It is as though the NYA agreement have settled everything.
> However make no mistake. What seem calm belies what is happening in
> the background. Like a duck on the water paddling furiously
> underneath.
> 
> Over at r/bitcoin talk seems to center around price and technology.
> Nothing about any negativity, usability or the growing mempool.
> Censorship of robust discussions is just downright deceitful.
> Especially if it is the de facto forum. It must quit being a
> propaganda organ. There will be consequences.
> 
> The people around Segwit may be frantically on the phone, fax and
> email arguing and pleading with the miners. They can see the writing
> on the wall. Only 124 blocks were found in the last 24 hours. Block
> time have increased to 11 minutes and the mempool is in excess of
> 70MB. It is "too little too late". For many of the miners "Revenge is
> a dish best eaten cold".
> 
> Steve




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