Interpreting Data About ISIS Online (Center for Public Diplomacy)

Razer rayzer at riseup.net
Tue Oct 11 09:01:45 PDT 2016


Interpreting Data About ISIS Online

Oct 6, 2016

Challenging ISIS has little to do with their number of followers, or the
decline in their number of messages. This type of tactical-level data
can indicate success, but genuine impact can only occur with robust
interpretation of data at the strategic level.

Recent studies have been used to claim success in reducing the number of
followers and volume of ISIS content on social media. Reports which
appear to show decline are seized on and used by many of the Public
Diplomacy and Information Operations strategies deployed against ISIS,
which seek opportunities to highlight failures and losses of the group.

Yet it is equally clear that, despite increasing efforts by western
governments and social media providers to counter ISIS online, ISIS
continues to produce and disseminate large quantities of
ideologically-inspired audio visual content and information. Equally,
individuals who have never had direct contact with the group commit acts
of violence in their name.

As such, it is often the case that the detail tells a different story
than some of the claims made about the data, specifically that ISIS is
experiencing a decline in followers and content on Twitter.<

Decline in the Number of Twitter Followers

The decline in the number of followers is frequently cited by those
seeking to emphasize success against ISIS. I’ve written previously about
the significant problems in the data collection and analysis in one of
the frequently cited studies. Even so, this study is cited as showing a
decline in follower numbers, despite actually concluding that
“suspensions held the size and reach of the overall network flat, while
devastating the reach of specific users who have been repeatedly targeted.”
Claims of success against an adversary must account for fluctuations in
said adversary’s tactics.

Social media platforms are fundamentally social networks. The metrics
about followers which Twitter produces are accurate for an individual
account, but cannot simply be aggregated to show the total number of
followers in a specific network. If number of followers is aggregated,
it will likely produce wildly inflated numbers for reach, and equally
overstate the decline in ISIS social media.

The falling follower fallacy is demonstrated in the image below. In it,
the same nodes are shown connected in different configurations, similar
to the three types or topologies John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt
highlighted in their discussion of Netwar.

[Chart]

Reading left to right, the different layouts demonstrate that:

    Aggregating follower numbers inflates the number of accounts that
appear to be in the network.
    The decline in aggregated follower numbers cannot be read as showing
decline in the number of accounts in the network.
    The decline in aggregated follower numbers cannot be used to show
that the network is being disrupted.

Ultimately, the Twitter strategy is to disseminate content, not gather
followers. In fact, distributing content rather than gaining followers
is the stated objective within ISIS networks, and as shown here, this is
entirely possible despite declining aggregate follower numbers..."

More, with links:
http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/interpreting-data-about-isis-online


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