AP: estimating odds, cryptocurrencies, status

grarpamp grarpamp at gmail.com
Sun Jul 17 01:25:25 PDT 2016

On 7/16/16, jim bell <jdb10987 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> AP should be remarkably economical.  There are economic concepts known
> as"current value of money" and "future value of money" that reflect the
> effects of inflationand the interest rate.   If a person has to pay "1 unit"
> of tax each year, how much should he be willing to spend to avoid this?

People should learn those concepts. A lot of success is tied to them.

> Now, it should be pointed out that there will still have to be SOME sort of
> systemto run what we have called up until now "government". But there is no
> reason to believe that such a system needs to be nearly as large as it
> currently is.

Bid systems can reduce costs to the buyers, and can even include
insurance on contractual performance of obligations by bidders.
Performance incentives could take many forms.

> For instance, I have predicted that AP will completely replace what has been
> called"National Defense", not merely for America but for each geographic
> entity previously called a "country".  In other words, the $600 billion that
> we're spending might drop tounder (say) $1 billion/year.   That would
> certainly sound impossible to believe to aperson to whom AP wasn't
> explained.

> I am paying attention to Ethereum and Augur.  A prediction market

That's something a lot of people read AP haven't yet grown beyond...

The potential application isn't just assassinations, or dark predictions...
but democratically produced outcomes, and VC funded side expeditions.
As with existing systems today, the procurement needs of general
populations will end up greatly outweighing the minor background noise
of things like murder for hire.

Want that road from A to B repaired... write a contract for it.
A new fire truck or cop on the street... wager a prediction.
Basic health / elder care...
Terraforming Mars...

Now offering 1:2 farmer's commodity that, if not wholesale reformed,
a certain global power will have difficulty surviving under its current
ways past the 32 bit epoch, certainly not past 2076.
All buyers stipulating insurance terms will be rejected ;)

More information about the cypherpunks mailing list