AP: estimating odds, cryptocurrencies, status

[jim bell]

 From: grarpamp <grarpamp at gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, July 13, 2016 9:35 PM
 Subject: AP: estimating odds, cryptocurrencies, status
   
On 7/13/16, jim bell <jdb10987 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>> The analysis for America is simple:  The Feds collect $3 trillion in taxes
>> peryear.  Suppose each person who pays $1 in tax also pays 1 cent for a
>> fundto get rid of his oppressors, or $30 billion.  If a hit cost $100,000
>> (probably that estimate is very high), if you divide $30 billion by
>> $100,000, that wouldpay for 300,000 hits.  Do you think that the government
>> could function effectively if even as few as 30,000 get killed over a 1-year
>> period?Let alone 300,000?

>Say there are 10M anonymous user of darknets, 0.001% might
>throw $100 cryptos at it for politics or lols, that's $1M or 10 $100k hits.
>There's all sorts of sliders you can play with there that could
>ultimately yield some form of interference in the timeline.
AP should be remarkably economical.  There are economic concepts known as"current value of money" and "future value of money" that reflect the effects of inflationand the interest rate.   If a person has to pay "1 unit" of tax each year, how much should he be willing to spend to avoid this?  Ignoring inflation, and assuming the interest rate is about 3%, a person might be willing to pay (1/0.03), or 33 units to ceasethat obligation.  (approximately).  Fortunately, as my estimate above explains,if 'everyone' was willing to pay perhaps 1% of his yearly obligations, that would presumably stop the system that requires these payments.
Now, it should be pointed out that there will still have to be SOME sort of systemto run what we have called up until now "government".  But there is no reason to believe that such a system needs to be nearly as large as it currently is.
For instance, I have predicted that AP will completely replace what has been called"National Defense", not merely for America but for each geographic entity previously called a "country".  In other words, the $600 billion that we're spending might drop tounder (say) $1 billion/year.   That would certainly sound impossible to believe to aperson to whom AP wasn't explained.  

>Beyond estimating, there's the large questions of
>- What, if any, such markets have sprung up?
So far, no effective ones, I think.  At least, no death attributable to such a system hasbeen identified, and I feel certain we would have heard if that had happened.Sanjuro's thing of about November 2013 did not function; I felt it would not when I heard that it only accepted a minimum bid of 1 Btc, which at thetime was about $800.  I felt, and still feel, that a minimum donation at least a factor of1000 times smaller would be desirable, and probably 10,000x smaller.
The one really useful thing about Sanjuro's effort is that it exposed how people (atleast, hundreds of journalists) were going to react to an AP-type system.  His systemdidn't eventually work, but the people who wrote about it didn't know that at the time.  Therefore, I accept their reactions as being representative of 'the real thing' when it happens.
One of the reasons that government can't complain too loudly was the Federal Government's FutureMAP system, proposed for a day or so in 2003.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_Analysis_Market 

>- If not, why not?
An excellent subject for a debate!  But remember, if nobody had bothered to take thetime an effort to implement Bitcoin, we'd all be asking "Why hasn't anybody implementedan effective digital currency yet?  After all, I first read of David Chaum's article aboutDigicash in Scientific American magazine in 1992 or so.  It took another 17 or so years to do Btc.More later on this.
- When will they? What are their requirements and environment
to startup, and succeed?

As Nick Szabo said in May 2015, at:   http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2015/05/small-game-fallacies.html      " A sufficiently large market predicting an individual's death is also, necessarily, an assassination market, and similarly other "prediction" markets are also act markets, changing incentives to act outside that market to bring about the predicted events."
 But everybody has to be assured that the system will function, will play fair, and that all actors involved will get what they expect from it.
 I am paying attention to Ethereum and Augur.  A prediction market, run on an 
unstoppable distributed computer comprising hundreds of thousands of separate networked computers, means that things aren't occurring at anyspecific location, but instead are happening "everywhere".  
              Jim Bell


  
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