Ethereum and Auger

dan at geer.org dan at geer.org
Thu Oct 29 11:41:18 PDT 2015


There is a considerable body of academic work on prediction markets,
and I recommend reading it.  Inter alia, intentionally moving such
a market in a stupid direction to further some sort of fraud or to
act out of spite is entirely possible so long as you have an
open-ended amount of money to lose.

But for those still hoping to dismiss prediction markets, the
Dodd-Frank Act, in provision 7 USC section 7a-2(c)(5)(c)(i), gave
the CFTC the power to ban certain kinds of event contracts.  This
includes illegal activities, gaming, war, and terrorism.  The CFTC
has used that power to forbid NADEX, a regulated market, from
offering event contracts for elections.  The CFTC gave several
reasons for banning the event contracts, including that multiple
states had defined placing money on elections to be gambling and
that the contracts would not serve any economic purpose such as
allowing participants to hedge against an outcome.

Libertarians who live in the real world vote Republican,

--dan




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