Ethereum and Auger

Steven Schear schear.steve at gmail.com
Wed Oct 28 10:01:57 PDT 2015


On Wed, Oct 28, 2015 at 9:59 AM, Georgi Guninski <guninski at guninski.com>
wrote:

> I mean:  I don't trust any actor on any market.
> If more than half of the actors decide to cooperate,
> they trivially win in this case.
> If the NSA decides to fuck a prediction, they can buy
> ether and their bots will do the rest.
>

Does it matter whether the crowds can do accurate predictions if the main
purpose is for special actors with the skills and interest to be encouraged
to create outcomes that are being wagered upon. I've not looked closely at
Augur but back in Cpunk days stumped for PMs that included forwards,
similar to financial futures, but where the participants could create
contracts which narrowed the prediction windows to months, weeks or even
days within the greater expiry period (e.g., Dec. 31, 2015) but were not
required to specify which month, week or day . By enabling such
sub-contract narrowing the benefit for an accurate prediction scales with
its temporal ratio with the general contract thus increasing leverage and
benefit to special actors.

Steve
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