UK To Ban Crypto In Devices, Email And More
zen at freedbms.net
Fri Nov 6 17:12:52 PST 2015
On 11/7/15, Joseph Gentle <me at josephg.com> wrote:
> On Sat, Nov 7, 2015 at 12:51 AM, Zenaan Harkness <zen at freedbms.net> wrote:
The following quote does have embedded links: "there’s argument about
whether the gun related homicides and other various crimes have
actually increased or not. Some places have the homicide rate
increasing at 3.2% along with armed robbery at 44%, while some other
stats have them remaining about the same. At the very least, we do
know that the policies have not significantly decreased crime. That’s
not even being debated. Which…considering that the Australian
government spent a considerable amount of money on the laws, seems at
the very least, disappointing."
That article's comments also linked to the following, which is much more useful:
"Australia enacted one of the largest gun reforms ever nearly 2
decades ago — and gun deaths plummeted"
and which, despite the headline, goes on to highlight with stats from
-before- the gun law changes (well shit, how can you see a cause if
you don't know the numbers prior to the supposed cause), "Firearm
suicides and homicides did drop after Australia's buyback and
enactment of the NFA. As The Washington Post's Wonkblog has pointed
out, researchers from two different Australian universities found
that, in the decade after the NFA was introduced, the firearm homicide
rate fell by 59% and the firearm suicide rate fell by 65% — without
increases in other types of deaths.
Here's a bigger picture:
australia gun deaths bi Andy Kiersz/Business Insider
Whether the NFA catalyzed that decline, however, is still up for
debate. Over the last several decades, gun deaths in most developed
nations have been trending downward, and studies struggle to determine
how much of the drop resulted from Australia's legislation. Causality
is also inherently difficult to determine in social sciences."
And that graph is, to my eyes, unequivocally compelling - the trend
was already in place, and the Port-Aurthur massacre 'NFA' laws change
did -not- effect that trend in an identifiable way - in fact, it could
well be argued that the change in laws precipitated a steady decline
in the annual reduction of Australian gun-deaths, to the point where
it appears that the decline has all but plateaued - i.e. no more
decline. But what I won't say is that these Australian post Port
Arthur laws caused that plateau - frankly I have no idea, and a proper
study of potential causes would need to be undertaken, if it's
possible at all...
What this graph clearly shows is that it is impossible to conclude
that those Australian post Port Arthur compulsory gun buyback 'NFA'
laws caused any increase in the prior trend of gun death decline
> Its amazing NRA propaganda still manages to rewrite the history on the
> story on the ground here. You just don't see guns in Australia. I
Actually, I do. I live rurally though.
> don't know anyone who has one. I'd never seen a gun be drawn or fired
> in real life before I moved to the USA. (Source: I've lived in
> Australia for 30 years)
I've lived in Australia for longer than you. So what - that's
irrelevant to the point - whether or not gun-related crime and/ or
deaths has reduced due to Australia's anti-gun policy, or not. We
could also debate whether disarming of the population is a 'good'
thing or not but that would be opinion porn.
> While the impact of the Australian gun laws is still debated, there
> have been large decreases in the number of firearm suicides and the
> number of firearm homicides in Australia. Homicide rates in Australia
> are only 1.2 per 100,000 people, with less than 15% of these resulting
> from firearms.
Current rates, are not comparative rates. Common sense 1-0-1.
(In case you miss the point - comparative means not between countries,
but comparing the point at issue - Australia's compulsory gun buyback
> Prior to the implementation of the gun laws, 112 people were killed
> in 11 mass shootings. Since the implementation of the gun laws, no
> comparable gun massacres have occurred in Australia.
I am not qualified to comment on the statistical significance of this,
nor do I have facts regarding this - although the Lindt Cafe shooting
earlier this year in Sydney may or may not be a relevant data point.
> Remarkably, American pro-gun advocates try to use the impact of the
> Australian gun law reform to make a case that reform “doesn’t work”.
>From the comparative statistics I've seen, and everything I've read
since Port Arthur, I believe the NRA position to be correct. As of
this year, we now have more guns in Australia than we had prior to the
buyback. Again, perhaps not a very useful data point.
> This seems amazing given the homicide rate in the United States is
> five per 100,000 people, with most homicides involving firearms.
Again, comparing countries anecdotally is not the same as analysing
the effects of population disarming laws.
> From http://sydney.edu.au/news/84.html?newsstoryid=1502 :
> "From 1996 to 2003, the total number of gun deaths each year fell
> from 521 to 289, suggesting that the removal of more than 700,000 guns
> was associated with a faster declining rate of gun suicide and gun
Again hog-wash, since there is no comparison to the pre-disarm-laws.
Unlike the graph I posted above.
> By 2002/03, Australia's rate of 0.27 firearm-related homicides per
> 100,000 population had dropped to one-fifteenth that of the United
Again, I don't know how this is relevant to analysing the efficacy of
gun control laws.
PS: I read in one article the claim that 'unlike America, Australians
don't have a constitutional right to bear arms'. This is actually not
true, just that most people don't know it. Our Australian federal
constitution creates the Commonwealth of Australia, creates each of
the states, creates our superior court (the High Court we call it),
creates our federal parliament, and our High Court, in Mabo 2 (a
ruling from I think 1998) upheld the continuity of the Imperial Acts
including the Bill of Rights 1688, as well as the Magna Charta/ Magna
Carta. Unfortunately, the head of our NRA equivalent sold us out quite
some years back when he proclaimed very publicly "there's nothing we
can" (or words to that effect). Australians - mostly bloody ratbags
acting in total self interest.
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