The BlackList

[Mirimir]

On 11/02/2015 02:22 AM, Ryan Carboni wrote:
[Mirimir wrote:]
>> On 11/01/2015 01:52 PM, Juan wrote:
>>> On Sun, 1 Nov 2015 01:16:15 -0700
>>> coderman <coderman at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 11/1/15, Juan <juan.g71 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> ...
>>>>>     It seems (kinda obvious) to me that to get rid of 'high
>>>>>     ranking' targets you need a 'professional' service, agree?
>>>>
>>>> no, this is movie plot thinking.
>>>
>>>       Ha. That's a funny remark because I was just thinking that AP
>>>       does sound like literary fiction so far.
>>
>> Well, the idea has been kicked around for 20 years, and little has come
>> of it. Maybe that's because it's still unworkable. How are people going
>> to bid anonymously? Is Tor good enough for that? A viable AP market
>> would draw TLAs to Tor like dogs to shit. And they would cooperate.
>>
>> Also, how would bidders pay anonymously when targets were killed? There
>> is no inherently anonymous payment system that's widely available. Maybe
>> anonymized Bitcoin, after a few mixes through Tor, would make the nut.
>> Or maybe creative carding. Maybe y'all reading this could manage it. But
>> what about the clueless masses who might be motivated to bid?
>>
>> I don't know whether AP would take down governments. Hell, I'm not even
>> sure whether that would be prudent. But I am certain that many bidders
>> would go down, through cluelessness or system compromise.
> 
> The theory, I thought, was a simple prediction market. Based on
> actuarial statistics by Social Security, people usually have less than
> a 1% chance of dying per year (Fidel Castro seems to have a 0%
> chance), so guessing the right death year is pretty "lucky".
> 
> The person who guesses correctly would receive the pot of money.
> 
> The real problem is that the prediction market will be regulated out
> of existence. You have any idea how regulated the resale of life
> insurance contracts are?
> 
> That and, how do you trust the prediction market? It has to be a
> company with a mailing address, otherwise one could just run away with
> the money.
> 
> Personally, I believe a good prediction market would be one limited to
> predicting deaths and the overthrow of governments.
>