Satoshi's stash

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Wed Apr 17 06:52:06 PDT 2013


https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/

The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and
Genius

I wonbt discuss anything in this post. Ibm tired of discussing technical
things with people with skewed opinions and monetary interest. Ibve talked
enough in the Bitcointalk forum about Satoshi. Some people screamed at me.
But a picture is worth a thousand words. And I will show pictures that
everyone can replicate. Please forgive me for the awful image design.

The graphs were made by a new block chain analysis technique I tested that
consist on tracking the ExtraNonce fields in the coinbase field of the
coinbase transaction, which is the one that creates bitcoins. As far as I
know, is hasnbt been done before. In the following graphs each dot is the
creation of 50 BTC. I have only analyzed and printed graphs from block 0 upto
block 36288. I wonder what will I get when I process the remaining three
years.  The extraNonce fields increments every time the nonce fields (which
is 32 bits) overflows, so itbs a slow realtime clock, until the application
is restarted, in which case it goes back to 1. Note the X-Axis in the graphs
is not time (as itbs said on the graph). Itbs the block number (thatbs a
mistake).

I donbt think there is a moral obligation not to publish this information
since itbs already on public domain (the blockchain). Also Satoshi was
completely aware of the poor anonymization capabilities of Bitcoin (a
trade-off for performance and reduced bandwidth). Nevertheless, this lost of
privacy could have been absent if random ExtraNonces had been used instead of
incremental ones. So I could be thought as a Bitcoin privacy vulnerability
for the miners.

Disclaimer: I canbt assure with 100% certainty that the all the black dots
are owned by Satoshi, but almost all are owned by a single entity, and that
entity began mining right from block 1, and with the same performance as the
genesis block. It can be identified by constant slope segments that
occasionally restart. Also this entity is the only entity that has shown
complete trust in Bitcoin, since it hasnbt spend any coins (as last as the
eye can see). I estimate at eyesight that Satoshi fortune is around 1M
Bitcoins, or 100M USD at current exchange rate. Ibm sure there will be plenty
of people that will carefully analyze the source data set and come up with
the exact figure, which will be very close, but nevertheless they will scream
at me again.





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