Secrecy News -- 09/06/12

Thu Sep 6 07:32:11 PDT 2012

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SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2012, Issue No. 89
September 6, 2012

Secrecy News Blog:  http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/

**     GREATER AUTONOMY FOR UNMANNED MILITARY SYSTEMS URGED
**     NEW ARMY DOCTRINAL PUBLICATIONS ON INTELLIGENCE, SPECIAL OPS
**     TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS, AND MORE FROM CRS

GREATER AUTONOMY FOR UNMANNED MILITARY SYSTEMS URGED

The Department of Defense should focus on increasing the autonomy of
drones and other unmanned military systems, a new report from the Defense
Science Board said.

DoD should "more aggressively use autonomy in military missions," the
Board report said, because currently "autonomy technology is being
underutilized."  See "The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems," Defense Science
Board, dated July 2012 and released last week.

	http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/dsb/autonomy.pdf

"Autonomy" in this context does not mean "computers making independent
decisions and taking uncontrolled action."  The Board is not calling for
the immediate development of Skynet at this time.  Rather, autonomy refers
to the automation of a particular function within programmed limits.  "It
should be made clear that all autonomous systems are supervised by human
operators at some level," the report stressed.

Increased autonomy for unmanned military systems "can enable humans to
delegate those tasks that are more effectively done by computer... thus
freeing humans to focus on more complex decision making."

"However, the true value of these systems is not to provide a direct human
replacement, but rather to extend and complement human capability by
providing potentially unlimited persistent capabilities, reducing human
exposure to life threatening tasks, and with proper design, reducing the
high cognitive load currently placed on operators/supervisors."

But all of that is easier said than done.

"Current designs of autonomous systems, and current design methods for
increasing autonomy, can create brittle platforms" that are subject to
irreversible error.  There are also "new failure paths associated with more
autonomous platforms, which has been seen in friendly fire fatalities....
This brittleness, which is resident in many current designs, has severely
retarded the potential benefits that could be obtained by using advances in
autonomy."

The Defense Science Board report discusses the institutional challenges
confronting a move toward increasing autonomy, including the obstacles
posed by proprietary software.  It offers an extended discussion of
conflict scenarios in which the enemy employs its own autonomous systems
against U.S. forces.  The authors describe China's "alarming" investment in
unmanned systems, and encourage particular attention to the relatively
neglected topic of the vulnerability of unmanned systems.

The report includes some intriguing citations, such as a volume on
"Governing Lethal Behavior in Autonomous Robots," and presents numerous
incidental observations of interest.  For example:

"Big data has evolved as a major problem at the National Geospatial
Intelligence Agency (NGA).  Over 25 million minutes of full motion video
are stored at NGA."

But new sensors will produce "exponentially more data" than full motion
video, and will overwhelm current analytical capabilities.

"Today nineteen analysts are required per UAV orbit [i.e. per 24 hour
operational cycle].  With the advent of Gorgon Stare, ARGUS, and other
Broad Area Sensors, up to 2,000 analysts will be required per orbit."

The government "can't hire enough analysts or buy enough equipment to
close these gaps."

NEW ARMY DOCTRINAL PUBLICATIONS ON INTELLIGENCE, SPECIAL OPS

The U.S. Army has recently begun publishing two new series of Army
Doctrine Publications (ADP) and Army Doctrine Reference Publications
(ADRP).

	http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/index.html#adp

These publications generally offer a digest of existing doctrine in
introductory form for broad consumption, with limited modifications and a
few updates.  Last week, the Army issued new unclassified publications on
intelligence and special operations, among other topics.

TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS, AND MORE FROM CRS

New and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service that
Congress has chosen not to make available to the public include the
following.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Issues for Congress,
September 5, 2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42694.pdf

Weather-Related Power Outages and Electric System Resiliency, August 28,
2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42696.pdf

SBA Veterans Assistance Programs: An Analysis of Contemporary Issues,
September 4, 2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42695.pdf

Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, September 4,
2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42693.pdf

Immigration Detainers: Legal Issues, August 31, 2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42690.pdf

Tajikistan: Recent Developments and U.S. Interests, updated August 31,
2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/98-594.pdf

Defense: FY2013 Authorization and Appropriations, updated September 5,
2012:

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42607.pdf

_______________________________________________
Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the
Federation of American Scientists.

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_______________________
Steven Aftergood
Project on Government Secrecy
Federation of American Scientists
web:    www.fas.org/sgp/index.html
email:  saftergood at fas.org
voice:  (202) 454-4691
twitter: @saftergood

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