[ExI] The NSA's new data center
Anders Sandberg
anders at aleph.se
Sat Mar 24 05:36:51 PDT 2012
I did a little calculation: at what point can governments spy 24/7 on
their citizens and store all the data?
I used the World Bank World Development Indicators and IMF predictors for
future GDP growth and the United nations median population forecasts, the
fit 10.^(-.2502*(t-1980)+6.304) for the cost (in dollars)per gigabyte
(found on various pages about Kryder's law) and the assumption that 24/7
video surveillance would require 10 TB per person per year.
Now, if we assume the total budget is 0.1% of the GDP and the storage is
just 10% of that (the rest is overhead, power, cooling, facilities etc),
then the conclusion is that doing this becomes feasible around 2020.
Bermuda, Luxenbourg and Norway can do it in 2018, by 2019 most of Western
Europe plus the US and Japan can do it. China gets there in 2022. The last
countries to reach this level are Eritrea and Liberia in 2028, and finally
Zimbabwe in 2031. By 2025 the US and China will be able to monitor all of
humanity if they want to/are allowed.
So at least data storage is not going to be any problem. It would be very
interesting to get some estimates of the change in cost of surveillance
cameras and micro-drones, since presumably they are the ones that are
actually going to be the major hardware costs. Offset a bit because we are
helpfully adding surveillance capabilities to all our must-have smartphones
and smart cars. I suspect the hardware part will delay introduction a bit
in countries that want it, but that just mean there will be hardware
overhang once they get their smart dust, locators or gnatbots.
Note that this kind of video archive is useful even if you don't have a
myriad analysts, perfect speech recognition or AI (in fact, it would be a
great incentive and training corpus for developing them). When you figure
out that somebody is doing or have just done something nasty, you can
easily backtrack and check on everybody they had been in touch with. It
would be quite easy to catch most members of any rebel network this way as
soon as it was recognized as a rebel network - and one could easily create
incentives for not associating with potential subversives and/or reporting
them, adding crowdsourced reporting. The only kind of uprisnings with any
kind of chance would be spontaneous eruptions.
The more interesting (sinister) uses of this kind of intelligence corpus
is of course to do trials and experiments to see what predicts social norm
compliance and obedience. How well does various forms of nudging work? What
about the longitudinal loyalty effects of natural or deliberate
experiments? How well can you predict people from their saccade patterns?
We might actually be living in a short window of opportunity right now.
The problem is not the surveillance per se, but the danger from
non-accountable uses of them once they are in place. Totalitarian
governments with this kind of transparency might prove extremely hard to
dislodge, and could become stable attractor states. This suggests that we
should work very hard on figuring out how to maintain government
accountability even when it has total surveillance powers, and how to
prevent open societies from sliding into the totalitarian trap. Given that
the tail statistics of big disasters is dominated by pandemics, wars and
democides we have very good reasons to view this as among the top questions
for human survival.
Appendix:
2018 Bermuda
2018 Luxembourg
2018 Norway
2019 Australia
2019 Austria
2019 Belgium
2019 Canada
2019 Denmark
2019 Finland
2019 France
2019 Germany
2019 Iceland
2019 Ireland
2019 Japan
2019 Kuwait
2019 Netherlands
2019 Singapore
2019 Sweden
2019 Switzerland
2019 United Kingdom
2019 United States
2020 Cyprus
2020 French Polynesia
2020 Greece
2020 Israel
2020 Italy
2020 New Caledonia
2020 New Zealand
2020 Oman
2020 Puerto Rico
2020 Seychelles
2020 Slovakia
2020 Slovenia
2020 Spain
2020 United Arab Emirates
2021 Antigua and Barbuda
2021 Bahamas
2021 Bahrain
2021 Barbados
2021 Chile
2021 Croatia
2021 Czech Republic
2021 Equatorial Guinea
2021 Estonia
2021 Hungary
2021 Lithuania
2021 Poland
2021 Portugal
2021 Saudi Arabia
2021 Trinidad and Tobago
2021 Turkey
2022 Argentina
2022 Belarus
2022 Botswana
2022 Brazil
2022 Bulgaria
2022 China
2022 Costa Rica
2022 Cuba
2022 Dominica
2022 Dominican Republic
2022 Gabon
2022 Grenada
2022 Kazakhstan
2022 Latvia
2022 Lebanon
2022 Malaysia
2022 Mauritius
2022 Mexico
2022 Palau
2022 Panama
2022 Peru
2022 Romania
2022 South America
2022 Suriname
2022 Uruguay
2023 Albania
2023 Algeria
2023 Angola
2023 Azerbaijan
2023 Belize
2023 Bhutan
2023 Colombia
2023 Ecuador
2023 El Salvador
2023 Fiji
2023 Iraq
2023 Mongolia
2023 Morocco
2023 Namibia
2023 Serbia
2023 Thailand
2023 Tonga
2023 Tunisia
2023 Turkmenistan
2023 Ukraine
2024 Armenia
2024 Georgia
2024 Guatemala
2024 Guyana
2024 Honduras
2024 India
2024 Indonesia
2024 Marshall Islands
2024 Paraguay
2024 Philippines
2024 Samoa
2024 Sri Lanka
2024 Swaziland
2025 Bangladesh
2025 Cameroon
2025 Djibouti
2025 Egypt
2025 Ghana
2025 Lesotho
2025 Nicaragua
2025 Nigeria
2025 Pakistan
2025 Papua New Guinea
2025 Sao Tome and Principe
2025 Senegal
2025 Solomon Islands
2025 Sub-Saharan Africa
2025 Sudan
2025 Uzbekistan
2025 Zambia
2026 Afghanistan
2026 Benin
2026 Haiti
2026 Kenya
2026 Kyrgyzstan
2026 Mauritania
2026 Mozambique
2026 Tajikistan
2026 Uganda
2027 Central African Republic
2027 Chad
2027 Ethiopia
2027 Gambia
2027 Guinea
2027 Madagascar
2027 Malawi
2027 Mali
2027 Nepal
2027 Niger
2027 Rwanda
2027 Sierra Leone
2027 Togo
2028 Burundi
2028 Eritrea
2028 Liberia
2031 Zimbabwe
--
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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