Inside the Pentagon's New Plan for Drones That Don't Piss Off Pakistan

[Eugen Leitl]

http://www.esquire.com/the-side/feature/new-air-force-drones-in-pakistan-061709

June 17, 2009, 11:43 AM

Inside the Pentagon's New Plan for Drones That Don't Piss Off Pakistan

Esquire.com gets an advanced look at the Air Force roadmap to better robots b
flying multi-missile hitmen, floating multi-target guidance systems, flapping
suicide bombers b and how they can zero in on Al Qaeda without costing
Hillary her job.

By Erik Sofge

niper system (top) can lock in on four targets in urban environment,
potentially to deliver the precision power of the new Suburban Warrior UAV
(left). The backup plan? Flocks of sparrow-sized bombers (right).

As hitmen go, robots are clumsy killers. The proof is in Pakistan, where
local authorities claim that drone strikes on Al Qaeda and affiliate targets
have killed at least 687 civilians. Whether or not that figure is inflated,
the real or imagined death toll continues to fuel anti-American sentiment
around the world. And that's to say nothing of the anti-administration fervor
inside Washington circles as to whether President Obama and newly promoted
general Stanley McChrystal, in continuing Bush-era policies with Bush-era
technologies (even if they're offering Pakistan surveillance data), should
continue air strikes near the Afghan border at all.

Now, the Air Force is planning to build a more selective breed of military
drones, with swarms of bird-size bots shadowing targets and new unmanned
aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of launching mini-missiles at multiple targets
at once. The mechanized assassin, it seems, is about to become a lot more
professional.

Details of this new UAV development are limited b the Air Force Research
Laboratory released a 78-page briefing last month, sketching out individual
plans for a number of drone-related systems. The briefing, first obtained by
Air Force Times but reviewed this morning for Esquire.com, offers the first
detailed glimpse at an American military strategy that has adapted to
conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan and "incorporates a vision and
strategy... that focus on delivery of warfighting capability" with new
robots.

Perhaps the most significant concept in the briefing is a UAV called Suburb
Warrior, which would carry a new kind of smaller, precision-guided missile.
Another project, called Sniper, is a targeting system that can lock on to
multiple targets, allowing a single drone pilot to coordinate the attacks of
a squadron of robots b or a single UAV to hit a group of enemies. Picking
through the dozens of systems in this briefing, many of which will be
flight-tested within five years, there's a clear set of goals: build smaller,
even microscopic drones with smaller weapons that can hunt in swarms and
engage targets in the close quarters of urban battlefields. And hunt as soon
as possible.

To understand the significance of this new plan b how it could affect U.S.
diplomacy in the region, reduce potential troop counts there, and, you know,
better hunt Al Qaeda b one need only look at the current state of unmanned
assassination. The least powerful weapons deployed by Predators b and their
new big brother, the Reaper b are Hellfire missiles. These antitank weapons
have incredibly literal names; they're designed to penetrate armored vehicles
with a jet of molten metal. So if a U.S. target were sitting in a pickup
truck, or even a second-floor window, a Hellfire is more than overkill. It's
a collateral damage factory, turning a city street into hell on earth, and
potentially flattening buildings.

To paraphrase the NRA, robots don't kill civilians; missiles do.

Theoretically, the smaller missiles launched by Suburb Warrior would wreak
less havoc in crowded battlefields. In asking for proposals for a "Miniature
Weapon Demonstration," the Air Force described the new weapon as an
"air-launched, precision miniature munition capability," which would provide
a "mobile target kill capability against a broad set of targets in a suburban
environment." In the new briefing, the system is described as "for
application in a dense, all environment urban battlespace."

That's Pentagon speak for Obama-approved missiles that are ready for anything
short of Mogadishu, that cover the Pentagon's ass in smaller cities while
they're at it. Notional drawings of Suburb Warrior show the drone loaded with
four or more mini-missiles b far fewer munitions than a Reaper carries b but
make clear that it's much smaller than even the Predator. The Sniper
multiple-targeting system (that Goodyear-blimp-meets-Star-Wars-X-wing craft
pictured above) isn't tied to a specific UAV, but it could be a perfect fit
for delivering the Suburb Warrior.

Instead of dropping Hellfires or a 500-pound bomb on an insurgent hideout,
one or more Suburb Warriors could fire a volley of mini-missiles at confirmed
targets, without vaporizing the wedding reception next door. The drone is
slated for flight tests by 2014, and Sniper is scheduled to begin tests in
cruise missiles and UAVs within two years. The Air Force is reviewing white
papers for miniature munitions now, and a contract could be awarded as early
as September.

The problem, of course, is that even if the robotic upgrade continues on this
fast track, five years is an eternity for America's diplomatic arm to wait
for its military one. Who knows if Hillary Clinton will still have her job by
then? If she does, what if the new robots still aren't precise enough? So if
a squadron of low-flying drones and their micro-munitions don't provide a
clean kill in those packed communities, the Air Force Research Laboratory has
a more point-blank Plan B: tiny, biologically-inspired micro air vehicles
(MAVs) that can flap through alleys and inside buildings.

Like most UAVs, these robots would most likely be used for surveillance and
reconnaissance. But in an animated clip released by the Air Force late last
year, a MAV lands on an enemy sniper, and, without so much as a prayer to its
machine god, detonates itself. The new Air Force briefing doesn't elaborate
on this miniature suicide-bomber concept, but it does include plans to have
flocks of sparrow-size MAVs airborne by 2015, and even smaller,
dragonfly-size robots by 2030. And with the recent news that Israel is
developing an explosives-laden snakebot, the writing is on the wall: You can
run from tomorrow's robotic hitmen, and you can hide, and they'll flap or
squirm or glide into position and kill you anyway.

Erik Sofge is a freelance science, technology, and culture writer, covering
the latest in everything from fake robots and rayguns to real ones for
Popular Mechanics, Slate, and MSN. He lives in Boston with his wife and
possibly animatronic unborn child.