Kennedy School: Freedom, not wealth, squelches terrorist violence

[R.A. Hettinga]

Nice to know Camelot High is good for *something*.

Cheers,
RAH
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<http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2004/11.04/05-terror.html>

Harvard Gazette:

    Current Issue:
 November 04, 2004



Alberto Abadie: 'In the past, we heard people refer to the strong link
between terrorism and poverty, but ... when you look at the data, it's not
there. This is true not only for events of international terrorism ... but
... also for the overall level of terrorism, both of domestic and of
foreign origin.' (Staff photo Jon Chase/Harvard News Office)

 Freedom squelches terrorist violence

KSG associate professor researches freedom-terrorism link
By Alvin Powell
 Harvard News Office

 A John F. Kennedy School of Government researcher has cast doubt on the
widely held belief that terrorism stems from poverty, finding instead that
terrorist violence is related to a nation's level of political freedom.

 Associate Professor of Public Policy Alberto Abadie examined data on
terrorism and variables such as wealth, political freedom, geography, and
ethnic fractionalization for nations that have been targets of terrorist
attacks.

 Abadie, whose work was published in the Kennedy School's Faculty Research
Working Paper Series, included both acts of international and domestic
terrorism in his analysis.

 Though after the 9/11 attacks most of the work in this area has focused on
international terrorism, Abadie said terrorism originating within the
country where the attacks occur actually makes up the bulk of terrorist
acts each year. According to statistics from the MIPT Terrorism Knowledge
Base for 2003, which Abadie cites in his analysis, there were 1,536 reports
of domestic terrorism worldwide, compared with just 240 incidents of
international terrorism.

 Before analyzing the data, Abadie believed it was a reasonable assumption
that terrorism has its roots in poverty, especially since studies have
linked civil war to economic factors. However, once the data was corrected
for the influence of other factors studied, Abadie said he found no
significant relationship between a nation's wealth and the level of
terrorism it experiences.

 "In the past, we heard people refer to the strong link between terrorism
and poverty, but in fact when you look at the data, it's not there. This is
true not only for events of international terrorism, as previous studies
have shown, but perhaps more surprisingly also for the overall level of
terrorism, both of domestic and of foreign origin," Abadie said.

 Instead, Abadie detected a peculiar relationship between the levels of
political freedom a nation affords and the severity of terrorism. Though
terrorism declined among nations with high levels of political freedom, it
was the intermediate nations that seemed most vulnerable.

 Like those with much political freedom, nations at the other extreme -
with tightly controlled autocratic governments - also experienced low
levels of terrorism.

 Though his study didn't explore the reasons behind the trends he
researched, Abadie said it could be that autocratic nations' tight control
and repressive practices keep terrorist activities in check, while nations
making the transition to more open, democratic governments - such as
currently taking place in Iraq and Russia - may be politically unstable,
which makes them more vulnerable.

 "When you go from an autocratic regime and make the transition to
democracy, you may expect a temporary increase in terrorism," Abadie said.

 Abadie's study also found a strong connection in the data between
terrorism and geographic factors, such as elevation or tropical weather.

 "Failure to eradicate terrorism in some areas of the world has often been
attributed to geographic barriers, like mountainous terrain in Afghanistan
or tropical jungle in Colombia. This study provides empirical evidence of
the link between terrorism and geography," Abadie said.

 In Abadie's opinion, the connection between geography and terrorism is
hardly surprising.

 "Areas of difficult access offer safe haven to terrorist groups,
facilitate training, and provide funding through other illegal activities
like the production and trafficking of cocaine and opiates," Abadie wrote
in the paper.

 A native of Spain's Basque region, Abadie said he has long been interested
in terrorism and related issues. His past research has explored the effect
of terrorism on economic activity, using the Basque country as a case study.

 Abadie is turning his attention to the effect of terrorism on
international capital flows. Some analysts have argued that terrorist
attacks wouldn't have much of an impact on the economy, since unlike a
war's widespread damage, the damage from terrorist attacks tends to be
relatively small or confined to a small area.

 In an era of open international capital markets, however, Abadie said
terrorism may have a greater chilling effect than previously thought, since
even a low risk of damage from a terrorist attack may be enough to send
investors looking elsewhere.

-- 
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R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rah at ibuc.com>
The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'