Shock waves from Fallujah

[R. A. Hettinga]

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National devolution proceeds apace.

Howie Carr is shocking Chris Wallace just now about partitioning Iraq
into three countries, Kurdish (who will have oil), Shiite (who will
have oil), and Sunni (who will not; geography's a bitch), all while
putting a Sharon-Fence around the newly created Sunni-stan.

Kewl.

The Globe, below, doesn't know it, but they're advocating the same
thing.

Also cool.

"The legitimate aspirations of the Kurdish and Shiite people being
irreconcilable with a unified Iraq, the assembled signatories
declare..."

Cheers,
RAH
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<http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/093/editorials/Shock_waves_from_Fal
lujahP.shtml>

The Boston Globe





 THIS STORY HAS BEEN FORMATTED FOR EASY PRINTING

GLOBE EDITORIAL
Shock waves from Fallujah

4/2/2004

 THE SCENES of barbarism in Fallujah that have flashed around the
world since Wednesday will reverberate in many quarters, not least
among Iraq's Sunni Arab minority. Sunni Arabs, who predominate in
Fallujah, belong to the group that ruled Iraq during Saddam Hussein's
dictatorship. They now face the prospect not only of losing old
privileges but of being dependent upon the benevolence of Shi'ites
and Kurds, whose kin were massacred by Saddam and his agents.

 The burning and mutilation of the contract workers' bodies will
likely affect US tactics in Fallujah and the rest of the Sunni
Triangle. No doubt those horrific acts will also strain the patience
of the American public with the daunting challenges of
nation-building and democratization in Iraq. Civilians working for
companies fulfilling contracts to rebuild Iraq's power plants, oil
industry, roads, and other essential infrastructure may be deterred
from continuing their work and will certainly demand more security.
And UN officials who have been contemplating a major role for the
world body in organizing Iraqi elections for January 2005 will have
to question the wisdom of exposing UN workers to the kind of violence
on display in Fallujah.

 But the principal effect of that violence inside Iraq will be to
make the situation of the Sunni Arabs in the area around Fallujah
even more tenuous than it has been. If the populace of the Sunni
Triangle allows itself to be carried away with the bravado of
Ba'athist and Islamist armed gangs -- accepting the delusion that the
Sunnis can use guns and bombs to prevent the coming of a political
order based on the principle of one Iraqi, one vote -- Sunnis
themselves will stand to lose the most.

 If they frighten away UN election organizers and no legitimate
electoral process can be safeguarded, the Sunnis will have brought
themselves a step closer to one of the two perils most at odds with
their interests: civil war or the split-up of Iraq.

 Americans are understandably appalled by the lynch mob horror of the
Fallujah atrocities, but over the past few months most of the
bombings and ambushes have been directed against Iraqis --
particularly police, local administrators, and political figures.
This violence signifies not simply hostility to the US occupying
power but resistance to the advent of a democratic system that would
deprive Sunnis of an inherent right to rule. But if Sunni mayhem
makes it impossible to preserve the unity of the Iraqi state, Sunnis
will end up the biggest losers. Should Iraq break into three
countries, the Kurds in the north and the Shi'ites in the south will
have oil; the Sunnis in their triangle will not.

 And if the bombers and assassins succeed in provoking a civil war,
they will discover that losing a civil war is far worse than relying
on minority rights in a constitutional democracy.


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-- 
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R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rah at ibuc.com>
The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'