Pentagon discovers Assasination Politics, deadpools

Major Variola (ret.) mv at cdc.gov
Tue Jul 29 10:20:00 PDT 2003


Pentagon Abandons Terrorism Betting Plan
                     1 hour, 20 minutes
                     ago

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                     By KEN GUGGENHEIM, Associated Press Writer

                     WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) will
abandon a plan to
                     establish a futures market to help predict
terrorist strikes, the chairman of the
                     Senate Armed Services Committee (news - web sites)
said Tuesday.

                      Sen. John Warner (news, bio, voting record),
R-Va., said he spoke by phone
                      with the program's director, "and we mutually
agreed that this thing should be
                     stopped."

                     Warner announced the decision not long after Senate
Democratic Leader
                     Thomas Daschle took to the floor to denounce the
program as "an incentive
                     actually to commit acts of terrorism."

                     Warner made the announcement during a confirmation
hearing for retired Gen.
                     Peter J. Schoomaker, nominated to be Army chief of
staff.

                     "This is just wrong," declared Daschle, D-S.D.

                     Warner said he consulted with Senate Intelligence
Committee Chairman Pat
                     Roberts, R-Kansas, and Appropriations Committee
chairman Sen. Ted Stevens
                     (news, bio, voting record), R-Alaska, and they
agreed "that this should be
                     immediately disestablished."

                     He said they would recommend that the Pentagon not
spend any funds already
                     in place for the program and said they would pull
the plug on it during
                     House-Senate budget conference committee
negotiations later on this year.

                     The little-publicized Pentagon plan envisioned a
potential futures trading market
                     in which speculators would wager on the Internet on
the likelihood of a future
                     terrorist attack or assassination attempt on a
particular leader. A Web site
                     promoting the plan already is available.

                     When the plan was disclosed by two Democratic
senators Monday, the
                     Pentagon defended it as a way to gain intelligence
about potential terrorists'
                     plans.

                     Earlier, Warner had said that his staff was looking
into the program and would
                     report on it later Tuesday. Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton (news - web sites),
                     D-N.Y., said she was appalled to hear of plans to
set up "a futures market in
                     death."

                     Other Democrats expressed similar alarm.

                     "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities
and terrorism is ridiculous and
                     it's grotesque," said Sen. Ron Wyden (news, bio,
voting record), D-Ore., one of
                     two lawmakers who disclosed the plan Monday.

                     The program is called the Policy Analysis Market.
The Pentagon office
                     overseeing it, the Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency, or DARPA, said
                     it was part of a research effort "to investigate
the broadest possible set of new
                     ways to prevent terrorist attacks."

                     Traders would buy and sell futures contracts  just
like energy traders do now in
                     betting on the future price of oil. But the
contracts in this case would be based on
                     what might happen in the Middle East in terms of
economics, civil and military
                     affairs or specific events, such as terrorist
attacks.

                     Holders of a futures contract that came true would
collect the proceeds of traders
                     who put money into the market but predicted wrong.

                     A graphic on the market's Web page Monday showed
hypothetical futures
                     contracts in which investors could trade on the
likelihood that Palestinian leader
                     Yasser Arafat (news - web sites) would be
assassinated or Jordanian King
                     Abdullah II would be overthrown. Although the Web
site described the Policy
                     Analysis Market as Middle East market, the graphic
also included the possibility
                     of a North Korea (news - web sites) missile attack.

                     That graphic apparently was removed from the Web
site hours after the news
                     conference in which Wyden and fellow Democratic
Sen. Byron Dorgan (news,
                     bio, voting record) of North Dakota criticized the
market.

                      Dorgan described the market as "unbelievably
stupid."

                     "Can you imagine if another country set up a
betting parlor so that people could
                     go in ... and bet on the assassination of an
American political figure or the
                     overthrow of this institution or that institution?"
he said.

                     But in its statement Monday, DARPA said markets
could reveal "dispersed and
                     even hidden information. Futures markets have
proven themselves to be good at
                     predicting such things as elections results; they
are often better than expert
                     opinions."

                     According to its Web site, the Policy Analysis
Market would be a joint program of
                     DARPA and two private companies, Net Exchange, a
market technologies
                     company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, the
business information arm of
                     the publisher of The Economist magazine.

                     DARPA has been criticized by Congress for its
Terrorism Information Awareness
                     program, a computerized surveillance program that
has raised privacy concerns.
                     Wyden said the Policy Analysis Market is under the
supervision of retired Adm.
                     John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism
Information Awareness program and,
                     in the 1980s, national security adviser to
President Reagan.

                     The Web site does not address how much money
investors would be likely to
                     put into the market but says analysts would be
motivated by the "prospect of
                     profit and at pain of loss" to make accurate
predictions.

                     Trading is to begin Oct. 1. The market would
initially be limited to 1,000 traders,
                     increasing to at least 10,000 by Jan. 1.

                     The Web site says government agencies will not be
allowed to participate and
                     will not have access to the identities or funds of
traders.

                     The market is a project of a DARPA division called
FutureMAP, or "Futures
                     Markets Applied to Prediction."

                     "The rapid reaction of markets to knowledge held by
only a few participants may
                     provide an early warning system to avoid surprise,"
the FutureMap Web site said.

                     Dorgan and Wyden released a letter to Poindexter
calling for an end to the
                     program. They noted a May 20 report to lawmakers
that cited the possibility of
                     using market forces to predict whether Israel will
be attacked with biological
                     weapons.

                     "Surely such a threat should be met with
intelligence gathering of the highest
                     quality  not by putting the question to
individuals betting on an Internet Web
                     site," they said.

                     Wyden said $600,000 has been spent on the program
so far and the Pentagon
                     plans to spend an additional $149,000 this year.
The Pentagon has requested
                     $3 million for the program for next year and $5
million for the following year.

                     Wyden said the Senate version of next year's
defense spending bill would cut off
                     money for the program, but the House version would
fund it. The two versions
                     will have to be reconciled.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030729/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market_20





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