the news from bush's speech...H-power

Mike Rosing eresrch at eskimo.com
Thu Jan 30 08:05:46 PST 2003


On Thu, 30 Jan 2003, Harmon Seaver wrote:

>    Actually, VW has a plant making synfuel out of biomass. And we won't have to
> wait long before oil is $50-100 a barrel, it's at $35 right now and world oil
> production will peak this decade.

In the '80's it was "obvious" that oil production would peak around 1995.
We've already burned up all the solar energy collected from 140 to 250
million years ago - the dinosaur model does not fit the amount of oil
we're actually finding.  There's a lot more oil in the ground (most of
it may be under the oceans) so the price isn't going to rise that much for
the next 100 years.

That doesn't make "biomass" a bad fuel, but if it's gonna compete it
will have to get down to $20/barrel to be a clear winner.

>    That's a pretty easy decision to make, eh? Ethanol is renewable, oil isn't.
> Ethanol doesn't pollute, oil does. Ethanol doesn't require troops in the Middle
> East, wars, and resultant terror attacks, oil does. Quite simple.

Ethanol pollutes, any hydrocarbon is going to be mixed with N2 and make
NOx, there's no getting around it with any kind of Otto engine.  Oil
doesn't *need* to make wars either.  It's just that people with guns
also happen to be oil sellers, and stealing oil is cheaper than buying
it.  We could just buy Iraqi oil and solve a lot of problems all around.

>    Yes, but importing sugar isn't the answer either. Sugar beets and sorghum
> grow fine in the US. The best crop, however, is cattails. However, diesels are
> still a better solution, running on a biodiesel/ethanol mix, perhaps.
>    The main problem is corporate welfare. Farm subsidies and oil
> subsidies. Until that problem is solved, I don't think we'll see any real
> solutions, and, unfortunately, the way the world is going, I don't think that
> will happen in any of our lifetimes.

Like I've said before, the key to corruption is to make it work in
your favor.  The Romans, Spanish, French and American empires are all
the same, corruption eventually causes them to collapse.  But people
still live there, with entrenched corruption.

I think our best solution is to escape.  Mars might be far enough away
that we can start a nice civilazation.  But it'll turn corrupt eventually
because that's how humans work.  So we'll need to leave the keys for
future escapes :-)

Patience, persistence, truth,
Dr. mike





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