Shuttle Humor, Risk Estimation

Mike Rosing eresrch at
Mon Feb 3 12:06:02 PST 2003

On Mon, 3 Feb 2003, Major Variola (ret) wrote:

> I heard that at the beginning of the program, NASA estimated 1 bang
> in about 75 flights.  The Palestine meteor shower was flight
> 130-something
> and was bang #2.

Not to mention that it's 10 years past retirement.  Not too bad,
but not so good compared to an airplane.

> ...
> BTW, two birds with one stone: Israeli & Indian.
> Has anyone run their psychosocial simulators on what happens when Osama
> claims responsibility?  Would he try this?   What numbers do you get for
> the US pop's reaction?

It's easier to just say Allah is on his side and this is proof :-)
Most people recognize accidents, and the connection between takeoff
and missing tiles is too obvious to dismiss as *the* primary cause.
Whether it's true or not remains to be seen.

> [SCITECHCOMM] There is a former NASA engineer on one of the tube
> stations trying
> to explain tech, but he is doing a poor job and unfortunately
> reinforcing
> a certain notion of engineers as monotone speakers incapable of
> relating tech to common experiences.  He picked at a tile with his
> fingernail on camera, which is good, but Feynman he is not.

I only saw him once.  He looked like Dilbert, so he'll be exactly
what every one expects.  Let's face it, TV is about stereotypes,
and he fits the bill.

Patience, persistence, truth,
Dr. mike

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