Indications Saddam Was Not in Hiding But a Captive

[Michael Kalus]

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http://www.debka.com/article_print.php?aid=743

Indications Saddam Was Not in Hiding But a Captive

DEBKAfile Special Report

December 14, 2003, 6:55 PM (GMT+02:00)

A number of questions are raised by the incredibly bedraggled, tired 
and crushed condition of this once savage, dapper and pampered ruler 
who was discovered in a hole in the ground on Saturday, December 13:

1. The length and state of his hair indicated he had not seen a barber 
or even had a shampoo for several weeks.

2. The wild state of his beard indicated he had not shaved for the same 
period

3. The hole dug in the floor of a cellar in a farm compound near Tikrit 
was primitive indeed b 6ft across and 8ft across with minimal sanitary 
arrangements - a far cry from his opulent palaces.

4. Saddam looked beaten and hungry.

5. Detained trying to escape were two unidentified men. Left with him 
were two AK-47 assault guns and a pistol, none of which were used.

6. The hole had only one opening. It was not only camouflaged with mud 
and bricks b it was blocked. He could not have climbed out without 
someone on the outside removing the covering.

7. And most important, $750,000 in 100-dollar notes were found with him 
(a pittance for his captors who expected a $25m reward)b but no 
communications equipment of any kind, whether cell phone or even a 
carrier pigeon for contacting the outside world.

According to DEBKAfile analysts, these seven anomalies point to one 
conclusion: Saddam Hussein was not in hiding; he was a prisoner.

After his last audiotaped message was delivered and aired over al 
Arabiya TV on Sunday November 16, on the occasion of Ramadan, Saddam 
was seized, possibly with the connivance of his own men, and held in 
that hole in Adwar for three weeks or more, which would have accounted 
for his appearance and condition. Meanwhile, his captors bargained for 
the $25 m prize the Americans promised for information leading to his 
capture alive or dead. The negotiations were mediated by Jalal 
Talabanibs Kurdish PUK militia.

These circumstances would explain the ex-rulerbs docility b described 
by Lt.Gen. Ricardo Sanchez as bresignationb b in the face of his 
capture by US forces. He must have regarded them as his rescuers and 
would have greeted them with relief.

 From Gen. Sanchezbs evasive answers to questions on the $25m bounty, it 
may be inferred that the Americans and Kurds took advantage of the 
negotiations with Saddambs abductors to move in close and capture him 
on their own account, for three reasons:

A. His capture had become a matter of national pride for the Americans. 
No kudos would have been attached to his handover by a local gang of 
bounty-seekers or criminals. The country would have been swept anew 
with rumors that the big hero Saddam was again betrayed by the people 
he trusted, just as in the war.

B. It was vital to catch his kidnappers unawares so as to make sure 
Saddam was taken alive. They might well have killed him and demanded 
the prize for his body. But they made sure he had no means of taking 
his own life and may have kept him sedated.

C. During the weeks he is presumed to have been in captivity, guerrilla 
activity declined markedly b especially in the Sunni Triangle towns of 
Falluja, Ramadi and Balad - while surging outside this flashpoint 
region b in Mosul in the north and Najef, Nasseriya and Hilla in the 
south. It was important for the coalition to lay hands on him before 
the epicenter of the violence turned back towards Baghdad and the 
center of the Sunni Triangle.

The next thing to watch now is not just where and when Saddam is 
brought to justice for countless crimes against his people and humanity 
- - Sanchez said his interrogation will take bas long as it takes b but 
what happens to the insurgency. Will it escalate or gradually die down?

An answer to this, according to DEBKAfilebs counter-terror sources, was 
received in Washington nine days before Saddam reached US custody.

It came in the form of a disturbing piece of intelligence that the 
notorious Lebanese terrorist and hostage-taker Imad Mughniyeh, who 
figures on the most wanted list of 22 men published by the FBI after 
9/11, had arrived in southern Iraq and was organizing a new anti-US 
terror campaign to be launched in March-April 2004, marking the first 
year of the American invasion.

For the past 21 years, Mughniyeh has waged a war of terror against 
Americans, whether on behalf of the Hizballah, the Iranian Shiite 
fundamentalists, al Qaeda or for himself. The Lebanese arch-terrorist 
represents for the anti-American forces in Iraq an ultimate weapon.

Saddambs capture will not turn this offensive aside; it may even bring 
it forward.

For Israel, there are three lessons to be drawn from the dramatic turn 
of events in Iraq:

First, An enemy must be pursued to the end and if necessary taken 
captive. The Sharon governmentbs conduct of an uncertain, wavering war 
against the Palestinian terror chief Yasser Arafat stands in stark 
contrast to the way the Americans have fought Saddam and his cohorts in 
Iraq and which has brought them impressive gains.

Second, Israel must join the US in bracing for the decisive round of 
violence under preparation by Mughniyeh, an old common enemy from the 
days of Beirut in the 1980s. Only three weeks ago, DEBKAfilebs military 
sources reveal, the terrorist mastermind himself was seen in south 
Lebanon in surveillance of northern Israel in the company of Iranian 
military officers. With this peril still to be fought, it is 
meaningless for Israelis to dicker over the Geneva Accord, unilateral 
steps around the Middle East road map, or even the defensive barrier.

Third, Certain Israeli pundits and even politicians, influenced by 
opinion in Europe, declared frequently in recent weeks that the 
Americans had no hope of capturing Saddam Hussein and were therefore 
bogged down irretrievably in Iraq. The inference was that the Americans 
erred in embarking on an unwinnable war in Iraq.

This was wide of the mark even before Saddam was brought in. The 
Americans are in firm control - even though they face a tough new 
adversary b and the whole purpose of the defeatist argument heard in 
Israel was to persuade the Sharon government that its position in 
relation to the Palestinians and Yasser Arafat is as hopeless as that 
of the Americans in Iraq. Israelbs only choice, according to this 
argument, is to knuckle under to Palestinian demands and give them what 
they want. Now that the Iraqi ruler is in American custody, they will 
have to think again.

b14 December

Commander of US ground forces in Iraq, Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, said at 
the dramatic news conference in Baghdad (Bremer: We Got him!), that 
Saddam Hussein was discovered in a bspider holeb 6-8ft deep behind a 
mud hut in a walled farm compound in Adwar, a town 15 km from Tikrit, 
eight months after his regime was toppled.

His capture was achieved without a shot fired and no injuries. He was 
emaciated, tired and unkempt and had grown a gray beard. The initial 
medical examination was videotaped and aired. He was then shaved for 
identification. Found with him were two AK-47 assault rifles and 
$750,000. Two associates were detained with him. A ventilator enabled 
them to stay underground. The hole in which Saddam was hiding was 
camouflaged with bricks and dirt.

Operation bRed Dawnb was carried by 4th Infantry Division and coalition 
special forces b 600 men. It was made possible by a great deal of human 
intelligence and the interrogation of captives.

Gen. Sanchez reported the deposed Iraqi ruler, discovered Saturday, 
December 13, at 8.30 pm local time, showed no resistance and appeared 
resigned to his fate. He was btalkative and cooperativeb while being 
taken to a secure place. The interrogation will btake as long as it 
takes.b

US administrator Paul Bremer called on the Iraqi people to turn to 
reconciliation and Saddambs followers to lay down their arms.

US troops poured into Baghdad and blocked the road-bridges into the 
capital as soon as word spread, in anticipation of violence from Saddam 
fedayeen or foreign terrorists fighting the US-led coalition presence. 
Baghdadis fired guns in the air to celebrate the capture of the man who 
ruled the country with an iron fist for 23 years. Kurdish and Shiite 
towns filled with dancing and jubilation. Iraq officials demand Saddam 
be handed over to the new Iraqi war crimes tribunal to be judged for 
the murder of 300,000 Iraqis.
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