Degrees of Freedom vs. Hollywood Control Freaks

[Trei, Peter]

> Tim May[SMTP:tcmay at got.net] wrote:
> 
> On Monday, June 3, 2002, at 08:40  AM, Trei, Peter wrote:
> >> OnThe MPAA does not have to 'will them out of existance', or even make
> > them illegal.  They plan to change the broadcast standard so they are
> > not supported.
> >
> > At least, this is my interpretation:
> >
> > The FCC has mandated a change to all-digital formats over the
> > next 5 years or so. After that, analog (NTSC) transmission will
> > be phased out.
> 
> My strong hunch is that there is essentially no chance of this 
> happening. For a mix of reasons which I'll just briefly list:
> 
Tim: I'm working on more then 'hunches'. Consider:
http://ftp.fcc.gov/Bureaus/Mass_Media/News_Releases/1998/nrmm8003.html
- start quote -
The FCC reaffirmed its service rules for the conversion by all U.S.
broadcasters 
to digital broadcasting services (DTV), including build-out construction
schedules, 
NTSC and DTV channel simulcasting, and the return of analog channels to the 
government by 2006.
- end quote -

That's the official USG position 5 years ago. Note the last clause
in particular. Your NTSC set will be a paperweight, at least as far as 
over-the-air reception is concerned, by 2006.

Now, in reality, the trashing of your old TV may be delayed...
(I'm quoting from www.digitaltelevision.com here):

- start quote -
Ending the Transition 

 By Congressional mandate, the transition period ends on
 December 31, 2006. On that date, NTSC broadcasting should
 terminate and stations should operate in a DTV mode alone,
 unless the FCC has granted a waiver. Any extensions beyond
 the final date will be considered on a market-by-market basis. 

 Under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, the Commission is
 required to grant a station's request for an extension if: 

 One or more stations affiliated with one of the Top-4 networks is
 not operating digitally, because the Commission has granted
 the station(s) an extension of time to complete construction; 

 Digital-to-analog converters are not generally available on the
 market; or 

 Fifteen percent or more of the homes in the market cannot
 receive a DTV signal either off the air or via cable or do not have
 either a digital TV set or analog-to-digital converter attached to
 one NTSC TV set capable of receive DTV signals in their local
 market. 

- end quote -

...but it will happen eventually. After the stations are
broadcasting digitally, the analog stations are unneeded,
and regardless of whether the FCC or the station has the
auction rights, they'll want to sell off the old spectrum.
Neither the FCC nor the broadcasters will want to forego
the money.

	[...]

> Item: Their system, my system, and tens of millions like them, are 
> already giving so many "degrees of freedom" that the cat is already out 
> of the bag. An attempt to make future DVDs incompatible with the tens of 
> millions of existing systems will be met with anger, boycotts, and 
> seeking of alternatives (e.g., a studio which continues to sell DVDs 
> will win out over ones which offer only newer and incompatible 
> versions). Throw in the pissed-off folks who bought HDTV systems in 
> 1997-2003 and are then told that they'll have to scrap even those 
> systems!
> 
Well, I'm convinced - I guess that's why every single album today is
released on both CD *and* vinyl - can't piss off the tens of millions of 
turntable owners, after all. 

[..]

> I give the chance that Jack Valenti and his bunch will be able to force 
> a conversion to a new video standard no chance of happening. 
> Manufacturers will back off if they see sales trending downward (for the 
> reasons cited above).
> 
Tim, I think you're missing the point here. Valenti and his ilk would like
nothing more than to force you to to rebuy your visual media *again*, but
they don't have to. I'll bet dollars to donuts that you've rebought some of
your VCR tapes as DVDs. Whey wouldn't the MPAA think they can
make you do it over?

> > Until these standards are settled one way or the other, anyone
> > buying digital video equipment (HDTV or otherwise) runs a
> > very substantial risk of finding themselves with a set of expensive
> > and otherwise useless doorstops.
> 
> Which is deterring huge numbers of people from even looking at HDTV. And 
> so they buy more DVDs, which are vastly better than the VHS tapes 
> they've been watching for years. Most of them apparently see little 
> compelling reason to upgrade to HDTV.
> 
The BCPG etal are moaning about the 'analog hole' because that's the
one they can't easily fix. They've already agreed not to license the 
marketing of devices with unprotected digital-out (the deCSS case
was about this, remember?) So the 'digital hole' is already plugged -
as more and more devices recognize and respond to the watermarks,
the usability of a ripped digital-to-digital file decreases. 

> > Progress and innovation in electronics will occur only
> > at the whim (and in the interest) of the entertainment industry.
> 
> Actually, I disagree. There are many examples--MP3s, Napster, the system 
> my friends have that I described, etc.--where the "street" does its own 
> thing regardless of what the entertainment industry and Jack Valenti 
> want.
> 
Well, Napster just went Chapter 11. Any future system which requires
either vintage or illegally hacked HW will have very limited usage.

> Final personal note: About a year ago I saw the absolutely gorgeous, 
> splendiferous Apple 22-inch "Cinema Display." A huge TFT flat monitor, 
> with a resolution of about 1600 x 1200. And they've now added a slightly 
> larger version with an ever higher resolution. I see myself getting one 
> of these, or the 30-inch version which will probably be available for 
> the same price in 2 years--and rigging it as my main high-res viewing 
> system. 
> 
I've seen them too - very, very nice!

> (Yeah, these systems are not so great for families and for 
> viewing parties, but, let's face it, when was the last time this kind of 
> viewing happened to you? Most of my own viewing, and that of nearly 
> everyone I know, is personal.)
> 
Not everyone is single and living alone.

The last time for me was last night - I and the kids watched The Simpsons,
and my wife joined us for Malcom in the Middle (very funny, but about a 
lifestyle alien to you). Saturday night we had 5 people sit through Harry 
Potter, as did about 8 of the neighbourhood kids on Sunday afternoon.

There are a very large number of families-with-kids out there, and family
viewing is common.

On a side note - the HP movie (which I'm not that fond of) is in
itself an example of the publishers being willing to piss people off.
The deleted scenes (one of the better things you get on DVDs)
where hidden behind a long and very inobvious set of operations
in the 'special features' section, essentially as an Easter Egg.

Not only that, but the operations neccesary to reach them 
reliably crashed my DVD player, which less then a year old,
due to insufficient memory. My daughter's PS/2 console
came to the rescue.


> The degrees of freedom will win out over the control freaks.
> 
Let's hope.

> --Tim May
> "Ben Franklin warned us that those who would trade liberty for a little 
> bit of temporary security deserve neither. This is the path we are now 
> racing down, with American flags fluttering."-- Tim May, on events 
> following 9/11/2001
> 
Peter Trei