Startups, Bubbles, and Unemployment

[Eric Cordian]

Tim philosophizes:

> I read with interest the comments on the "why are so many applied 
> cryptographers unemployed?" thread.

> I know a _lot_ of unemployed folks. Or folks looking for more than "part 
> time consulting" work.

> Lots of issues, lots of possible reasons for the high unemployment rate 
> of applied cryptographers:

> (This writer, an acquaintance of mine, has been trying for several years 
> to get various projects going. Sad to say, his very words above indicate 
> just how flaky his ideas are. He thinks others will fund projects as a 
> kind of charityware. 

Such people can be greatly helped by giving them an hour of your time, and
repeating the words "but what's the product?" every 90 seconds as they are
trying to talk.

> "We're young, we're Cypherpunks, let's raise some money, get a nice 
> office space with our espresso bar and hot tub, hire our friends, and 
> become rich."

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with this approach, as long as you are
being paid to think about something, with no expectation that a product
will be produced or sold.

"We're young.  We're Cypherpunks.  Let's find a research firm with a pool,
tennis courts, and free Coke, and get the government to pay us for a few
years to think about the cryptographic software needs of the
Rehabilitation Services Administration."

Where this model fails is when people want you to pay them to sit around
the pool and think up some product that is going to put Intel and
Microsoft out of business and make everyone rich.  Of course, only people
with no clue think in such terms, or expect someone else to fund their
lifestyle while they sit around "thinking off" all day.

Nice work if you can get it.

> Note: This is NOT directed at ZKS, which actually DID hire a guy like 
> Ian Goldberg! 

And coasted for quite a long time on Ian Goldberg's reputation capital
before the petard exploded and hoisted them.  Of course, the fact that the
actual users of the service were saying things like "it's slow", "it
sucks", "it blows", might have been a great hint that it was not destined
to become the next AOL/Time Warner.

> The third and probably most important reason is that a "good idea" is 
> not enough. Products that people actually pay money for is the raison 
> d'etre of companies. 

Some of the most exciting, stimulating software engineering projects you
can imagine are things no one in their right mind would ever want to buy.

Yet, it's startling how often "fun to work on" rises to the top of why a
project should be done.

> A lot of folks seem to think companies are just cool places to play 
> around with ideas at.

As the VP for R&D at Boeing once put it, "This isn't Boeing University."

Most of my friends who are rich and retired now did it not by inventing
any wonder product.  They did it by taking any job that was secure and
paid reasonably well, living on a shoestring, putting their money into
rental properties, fixing them up, renting them out, and reselling them.

A few lived on a shoestring, and put all their money into Fidelity
Magellan before it was a household word, or put their money into stocks,
or whatever, but you get the idea.

After you're loaded, then you can tinker in your garage without having to
ask anyone to fund your hobby.

I worry when people with niche skills bemoan high unemployment in their
niche.  It's a very bad time for Applied Cryptographers, Smalltalk-80
programmers, Algol-68 compiler bug fixers, Lisp Machine operators, or
whatever, they whine.

Again, take any job that pays well.  Live on a shoestring.  Do something
reasonably intelligent with your money.

If someone wanders by who has the next wonder product already developed,
and people are beating a path to their door to buy it, by all means pick
up some stock pre-IPO.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with being a wealthy McDonalds franchisee
whose hobby is Applied Cryptography, instead of a poor unemployed Applied
Cryptographer.

To Summarize:

1.  Hobbies are things we do for fun.  Jobs are things we do because
    they provide the world with a necessary good or service.  Don't
    make the mistake of thinking the world owes you a job that is also
    your hobby.  It's nice, but it rarely happens.  

2.  Take any job that pays well.  Live on a shoestring.  Do something
    intelligent with the leftover money.

3.  Invest some money in already developed products that look like they
    may become the Next Big Thing.

4.  Don't expect anyone to pay you to sit around and figure out what the
    Next Big Thing is going to be. 

-- 
Eric Michael Cordian 0+
O:.T:.O:. Mathematical Munitions Division
"Do What Thou Wilt Shall Be The Whole Of The Law"