Preparedness

Tim May tcmay at got.net
Fri Sep 21 21:45:13 PDT 2001


On Friday, September 21, 2001, at 08:44 PM, Declan McCullagh wrote:
> * It's not just getting hit by an attack that we citydwellers may need 
> to worry about, but the disruption afterward. It seems, based on news 
> reports, that many thousands of New Yorkers were left without basic 
> water-gas-electricity-phone service after last week's attacks. Water, 
> food, warm clothes -- lucky it wasn't winter -- can be vital. Better 
> than a Red Cross handout shelter.
>
> * Folks in DC are starting to think through this. My intern told me 
> today he has a gas mask (not new, he's had it a while). It's sorta a 
> nervous joke -- echo of Y2K -- but as soon as there's another attack 
> anywhere, folks in DC and NYC will get serious real fast. 
> Biochemwomdnuke attack and all bets are off.

As I said, the odds are that not much will happen...for a while. In a 
few months, after nothing has happened, these folks now worried will be 
claiming they knew all along that nothing would happen. (Nothing 
happened, therefore nothing _could_ have happened, the logic of the 
Monday morning quarterback.)

But I'll bet a lot of the NYC elite spend more time at their homes in 
the Hamptons and in the country, even as winter comes on. They'll make 
sure to be in NYC for the galas (but not the big ones, the ones that 
might be targets).

> * I have family in NYC who were out of the country during the attacks. 
> Now they're back, and they say they're not as willing to live in NYC 
> permanently. Suburbia is looking far more attractive.
>
> * Aimee posted something in the last week or so that was comprehensible 
> for once (I've since lost the post), which was a URL for a folding 
> plastic gas-mask with a charcoal filter. I recall it didn't seem 
> designed for chemattacks; it would be interesting to know what it could 
> filter.

Well, I posted about the EVAC-U8 mask/hood, with a charcoal filter. 
Available from the usual sources, like Nitro-Pak and Botach. Probably 
sold out now, though. Useful in fires, but also any noxious fume 
situation...for about 10-20 minutes.

Any attack with VX or similar nerve gas would kill tens of thousands 
fairly quickly. Gas masks of no use, due to lack of coverage of all 
exposed skin, and leakage. Gas masks mainly useful for mustard gas, that 
sort of thing.

Preston's "The Cobra Event" is a pretty good novel about releasing a 
virus in crowded cities. This was of course the novel that scared 
Clinton into starting a series of reviews of biochemical terrorism plans.
>

> * The Washington City Paper has a horrific cover story this week on the 
> city's beyond-pathetic response to Tuesday's attacks:
> http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/cover/cover.html

Something that is more of a "Towering Inferno" issue than a terrorism 
issue is the complete absence of any firefighting efforts with the WTC. 
Yeah, I know about the 300 firefighters killed trying to evacuate 
people. But where were the aerial water- and foam-spraying aircracraft? 
Where were the choppers landing on the roof to pluck off those who got 
to the roof?

Nothing. It's apparent that the only plan to fight this fire was for the 
sophisticated sprinkler system to do its job. (Probably nothing could 
have dealt with the tons of aviation fuel dumped inside the buildings, 
but, still, the absence of any aerial fire-suppression efforts pretty 
much tells us what "The Towering Inferno" told us 25 years ago: tall 
buildings, taller than about 30 stories, are "on their own.")

> * Based on this kind of report, you've got to wonder what would happen 
> if there were biochemwomdnuke attacks. I note this WOMD is coming up a 
> bit more on the news than last week; part of it may be the news 
> networks looking for another story. Or it could be that DC-NYC city 
> dwellers are a bit more worried, and what they're worried about is 
> reflected on the air.

The planning over many years, the sleeper agents, and the coordinated 
element of surprise tells us that the next attack will NOT be with 
airliners. The surprise is lost, the planes will be shot down (if 
there's time...I still think a plane could be diverted from an airport 
into a crowded stadium near the airport faster than fighters could be 
scrambled), the pilots will shoot back, etc.

The fact that this attack was several years in the making tells us that 
the _other_ cells could in fact be preparing releases of anthrax, or 
nerve gas, or even smallpox. The AUM cult made their own nerve gas, more 
than once, so Al Qaida has had years to do even better. And we know how 
easy it is to make anthrax cultures.

Many ways to do it. Pellets lobbed with slingshots into a NYC "Parade 
for the Heroes." 40,000 people dying of anthrax.

A few cannisters of VX fired with a mortar. A football stadium with 
60,000 fans. And a live television audience seeing the convulsions 
begin...

> * If we knew what we know now and were building a terrorist-resistant 
> society, we could. Not terrorist-proof, but resistant. No high 
> buildings, no large underground complexes, very spread out, 
> transportation perhaps based on cars, bicycles and light rail. Airports 
> far away from city centers, ala Denver and Pittsburgh, to avoid the 
> problem that still-not-open Reagan National airport is having, and 
> other airports like LaGuardia, Logan, and SF could have. The problem is 
> that we already have a terrorist-prone society, or at least 
> terrorist-vulnerable, and instead of rebuilding and "flattening" our 
> vertical construction, we're trying to terrorist-proof it.
>

Soft targets. Talked about on this list, in other fora, for many years. 
Dean Ing wrote a (not so great) novel with this title some years back.

Anyway, Declan and I have talked about this issue many times. I live on 
the coast, with nothing upwind of me except the Pacific Ocean. (I 
actually live about 4-5 miles inland, but same difference...just lightly 
populated residential areas due west of me.)

Partly it's to escape the ant heap of cities (Silicon Valley was too 
crowded for me, and it's by no means a "city"). Partly for other 
reasons. I certainly like having my couple of acres on top of a hill, 
with a defensible perimeter. Other people move even further out into the 
country....

Being somewhat of a worrier, even a paranoid, I can't say I see things 
getting any better over time. The "degrees of freedom" of our 
multi-dimensional society mean that someone will always be pissed off 
and ready to fight. And there are many points of attack. Kill Bin Laden 
and he's a martyr for a hundred others...some of who may already be 
blending into Pakistani society. (And Pakistan will be our new best 
friend, so many of these sleepers will get plenty of chances to visit 
the U.S....) I'm rambling here, so I'll stop.

--Tim May





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