Preparedness

[Tim May]

Look, friends (and non-friends), I need to say a few words about 
"preparedness." I've gotten questions from list readers about where to 
get KI tablets, what to stock up on, etc. A kind of replay of Y2K.

The odds of anything "really bad" hitting any particular reader of this 
list are small indeed. Even the WTC event which hit NYC only had a small 
chance of hitting any list members working or living in NYC.

Preparedness, like insurance, is for "unlikely but serious" events.

Take earthquake insurance, for example. Those of us who live here in 
California understand earthquakes: my first big one was being almost 
shaken out of bed in 1971 from a quake 100 miles to the south of me. 
Then a few more minor quakes, doing minor damage. And I was in Santa 
Cruz when the 1989 quake hit, killing about 75 statewide and doing 
billions in damage. And my brother was in the Northridge quake in '94, 
which in some ways was a more serious quake. A truly large quake, of 
7.6-7.8 would cause very serious disruption. A quake of 8 or larger 
would kill perhaps hundreds of thousands and would be likely be 
"unrecoverable from." (Meaning, the best that could happen to survivors 
would be their evacuation out of the area to a fresh start in Missouri 
or Iowa or wherever. California would be too disrupted--freeways, rail, 
aquaducts, everything--for recovery within a lifetime.)


So, how to prepare for this? I keep a pack loaded with supplies and 
clothing for several days. And at my house I have stored water (about 50 
gallons immediately drinkable, and a Katadyn ceramic filter, and 
potentially a few hundred other gallons of water). Food. Medical 
supplies. Guns.

And yet do I _expect_ an earthquake? No. But the costs of keeping these 
items is not great, and the benefits IF the unlikely happens are good.

How does this relate to the war? A nuclear exchange is probably 
unlikely, just as it was unlikely in the 1960s. But could it happen? 
Yes. Especially between countries in the near east.

Would I build a bomb shelter? No, and I haven't. Not even a fallout 
shelter.

How about potassium iodide tablets (to "load" the thyroid)? I bought 
some from Nitro-Pak (www.nitro-pak.com) a couple of years ago. 
Inexpensive. "Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not 
have it.

My advice is to stock up to your level of comfort and paranoia. Don't 
buy dried food and stuff you wouldn't eat anyway, but if you go to a 
supermarket, buy some extra cans, boxes, etc. of whatever you normally 
eat. (Rice is cheap and billions of people live on it. Macaroni, boxes 
of cereal, etc. All are better than nothing.)

If you don't already have a gun, I guess the messages over the last 
several years haven't been persuasive, so I won't start here.

Of the threats to consider over the coming months, I happen to think the 
outbreak of a virulent plague-like disease, released deliberately, is 
more likely than a nuclear war affecting the U.S. directly. (Though a 
nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India, which could happen in this 
upcoming war, would have enormous effects on the U.S. Even "survivalist" 
effects.)

This plague could be smallpox, bubonic plague, or a virulent influenza. 
Germ warfare research has been going on for several decades, despite 
public claims that such work was abandoned. Iraq had capabilities and 
may be lending support to others. The Russians had a major program to 
produce cannisters of "militarized smallpox." The world thought the 
smallpox critter had been completely eradicated, as it had "in the 
wild." But it lives on inside the facilities of Biopreparat, Fort 
Dedrick, and, perhaps, the suicide flasks of Al Qaida.

The best defense against such plagues is _avoidance_.

If you hear reports in coming weeks or months of large numbers of people 
showing up sick at emergency rooms, it's time to close the doors and 
windows and hunker down for as long as is possible. Standing in long 
lines to buy batteries and food and water is not the place to be.  (If I 
hear of such reports, I _may_ risk one quick run to the nearest grocery 
store to stock up, expecting that most of the sheeple will have either 
heard nothing or not have yet panicked. And an outbreak in Atlanta or 
Chicago is not likely to hit other regions for a few more days...)

Ask yourself what you would need to "ride it out" for at least a few 
weeks and you will know what you should be be buying before there are 
lines.

Odds are pretty good that nothing this dire will happen. This is the 
nature of risk, insurance, and preparedness. But better to be prepared 
than to be helpless.

--Tim May