Soft Targets (Re: Saudis detained photographing dam)

[Tim May]

On Tuesday, September 18, 2001, at 10:59 AM, Declan McCullagh wrote:

> http://www.fresnobee.com/local/story/846113p-905971c.html
>
> Two Saudis detained in Fresno Co.
>
> The Fresno Bee
>  (Published Monday, September, 17, 2001 4:55AM)
>
>    Two Saudi men were detained Sunday by federal and local authorities
> for failing to carry proper immigration documentation, the Fresno
> County Sheriff's Department reported.
>
>  The two men, who were not identified, were seen taking photographs of
> the Shaver Lake reservoir and dam Sunday afternoon by a resident in the
> mountain community. While driving toward Fresno, the men were stopped
> for questioning by sheriff's deputies along Highway 168 near Pine Ridge
> just before 7 p.m.
>

Ironically, I did a piece for a hacker's list last week discussing 
hitting dams. As that list frowns on having articles redistributed to 
attention drawn to it, I'll xxxxx out some of it:

 From: Tim May <tcmay at got.net>
Date: Sat Sep 15, 2001  09:37:44 AM US/Pacific
To: xxxxxx
Subject: Soft Targets


On Saturday, September 15, 2001, at 02:27 AM, xxxxxxx wrote:
Date: 14 Sep 2001 23:48:43 +0100
 From: xxxxxxxxx
Subject: objective view of future risks

I was asked today roughly:

What did I think were the chances of some other horrific terrorist attack
happening in the near future (1-2 months? 1-6 months? 1 year?) here in 
the
SF area.

I can think of lots of things that could happen.  I can think of what 
might
be attractive targets (the GG bridge, the Transamerica building), etc.
But I couldn't say whether I thought it likely, very likely, possible, or
what.


Any thoughts?


There's been a lot of discussion in the various groups and lists about 
the many "soft targets" in the U.S. and Europe.

Leading the list seem to be the various dams. Not the most massive 
concrete dams, but the "stressed eggshell" dams. A kamikaze bomber can 
easily exceed the design parameters. Several have been listed, which I 
won't summarize here. The bang for the buck could be very high, with 
major cities lying below some of these dams.

(I saw one detailed analysis of a particular dam...I think it was in 
Kentucky...that is of this eggshell design. Several 50-story buildings 
are built below this dam, some miles down the river, and would not 
likely survive a 100-foot high wall of water.)

After the World Trade Center was targetted in 1993, those who continued 
to work there instead of getting out of Dodge paid the price.

Many of these dams are within such a short flight from airports that no 
effective scrambling of jets to intercept them is possible. We may see 
"no fly" zones around such dams, with SAMs defending the sites.

Sports stadiums are a different kettle of fish. A plane leaving SFO or 
Oakland could be on top of one of the crowded stadiums within a minute 
or two. No time to scramble interceptors. Again, maybe SAMs with 
carefully-programmed intercept orders. Or flights at nearby airports 
could be cancelled when the stadiums are filled with 50,000 fans. (This 
scenario has been discussed many times. "Black Sunday" is nearly 30 
years old. Thomas Harris knew about the hijacked jet scenario but chose 
to use the more complicated "rogue dirigible pilot" plot device.)

All the recent hoopla about banning nail files and metal utensils is 
closing the barn door after the horses (ridden by the four horsemen) 
have left. Commercial jetliners will probably not be used again for this 
purpose...but what of cargo jets and privately-owned jets? Anyone with 
enough money (Bin Laden, others) can buy or lease their own jets.

It's easy to hack soft targets, given the willingness to die. Quite a 
bit harder to get away alive and then survive the aftermath.

xxxxelidedxxxx

Is it hopeless? No, of course not. The New York Stock Exchange was 
vastly too centralized...an archaic scheme whereby traders living in 
Connecticut and Long Island rode trains for hours each day so they could 
gather in one particular building and shout. Though "open outcry" and 
"market makers" have some technical advantages (and disadvantages), the 
overall scheme is archaic. And it's why the markets have been 
paralyzed...and will be for the foreseeable future. Count on lots of 
bomb threats emptying the trading floor. We as computer types should be 
endorsing further decentralization, further distribution of trading and 
computing resources. NASDAQ would not have been shut down...the only 
reason they did was out of sympathy with the NYSE, and for 
SEC/competitiveness reasons.

And avoiding soft targets is always advisable. Just as living in a beach 
house carries risks, so does working in an antheap.


--Tim May