Basking in the Glow of Terror

[Frog2]

(Some commentary on various silliness to hit the list in the wake of 
the terrorists attacks on the 11th).

Assertion:  "If only all airline passengers could be armed this never 
would have happened."

This is bunk.

All it takes is an AD to kill 300+ people on a airplane at 35,000 feet. 
 I've been to several concealed permit classes.  Based on the people I 
have encountered passing those courses, I think I'll pass on that idea. 
 However, the Sky Marshall program was canceled long ago and the events 
of September 11th make me wonder why.  I suspect that would have been 
far more effective, and far less dangerous, than permitting all airline 
passengers to carry loaded firearms aboard commercial airline flights.  
Americans are simply not responsible enough to carry firearms on 
Commercial flights.  Hell, I don't think any Swiss or Germans are 
either now that I consider it.  That's just folly and I am somewhat 
surprised to hear usually sage list members make this case and even 
blame anti-gun legislators of note for the incident.  Even if 90% of 
people are totally responsible that puts 30 irresponsible people on a 
full flight.  If 10% of those people carry, (3 people or 1% of the 
total) that's too much.  More than that, it's crazy.  Any discharge in 
a plane is a big deal.  Sky Marshalls used special low penetration low 
velocity ammo and are otherwise trained to minimize collateral damage 
if they discharge firearms in an aircraft.  That's far too much to 
expect from most American gun owners.  Face fact.

Assertion: "This wasn't the product of a expensive, long term 
coordinated effort."  "This attack could have been pulled off by a 
small group of perhaps 15 people for almost no money."  "It could have 
been a tiny cadre of eight or twelve people with no more money than to 
buy some plane tickets.  There is no reason a group could not organize 
such a project with a week's notice once you know airport security is 
going to let you pass with pocket knifes and cardboard box cutters."  
"We will find these terrorists were mostly lucky, not skilled."

Nonsense.

It almost certain that there were 8 direct field operatives and 12 
indirect field operatives involved in the attack (at least two for each 
plane: one to fly and one to hold the passengers at bay) plus support 
personnel.  It's possible that only 4 of these were prepared to die 
(and that the non-pilot hijacker didn't know that the hijacking would 
end up as a suicide attack).  Given that CNN is reporting a fragment 
rumor that the passengers might have overheard the terrorist's 
conversation which included a discussion of the Capital as a target it 
sounds like both terrorists (assuming they didn't also have a sleeper 
or two among the passangers just watching, which is a typical hijacking 
strategy) on that flight were prepared to die.  The chances of finding 
8 (or even 4) multi-engine licensed (or at least competent) Muslim (as 
seems to be the case) or other religious zealots willing to commit 
suicide for a cause- and maintaining that intention for many many 
months (more on this below)- is probably _vanishingly_ small.  These 
people must have a better than even chance of living in the United 
States for a long period and blending in for a long period.  Such 
persons would have to be _created_, rather than found and recruited.

In fact, it seems that this is the case since the FBI has (as of this 
writing) taken the records of individuals who attended months of flight 
school in Florida (At "Flight Safety International").  That's about 
$20,000 in flight training over the course of several months.  Two of 
the current suspects already had single engine licenses and were paying 
$1400.00 a month since June 10th, 2000 for rent in Florida.  $20,000 in 
lease payments per house for two houses over 15 months.  Apparently 
initial multi-engine training was followed up with jet training 
elsewhere- more costs there, perhaps another $20,000 for that pair.  
That means you have to house these people and their families (since 
apparently families were present) under a reliable and passable cover 
in the United States during that period.  You have to feed them, give 
them whatever other supplies required to get them to blend in.  This is 
small town Florida.  People there are nosey and spend a lot of time in 
their neighbor's busines.  They watch each other's houses.  They have 
nothing better to do.  Therefore you have to provide for their 
security, their camouflage.  They have to blend in well.  Appear to be 
middle class.  Harmless.  Have a dog.  Furniture.  Kids in school.  
They have to be able to withstand any check from a moving vehicle 
violation, pass flight certification, medical checks, insurance 
payments, credit checks by banks, realtors, credit card companies, 
avoid any kind of altercation that might attract police scrutiny and 
have some kind of plausible visa in the United States.  That's not 
cheap.  Not at all.  I've outlined at least $100,000 (which is majorly 
conservative I believe- most field operatives cost more in terms of 
support) in just the one pair who appears to have hijacked one of the 
Boston flights.  No one who hasn't run a field operation should be 
commenting on how much one costs with any guise of authority.  Period.

Consider the planning required:

These flights were hijacked within 30-50 minutes of each other.  Cross 
country- but not international- flights were selected and therefore 
gave the terrorists the best mix of full fuel tanks, large plane size 
and lowest security scrutiny.  The plane type had a major impact on the 
type of flight skills required and hence means that equipment would 
have been considered as a factor- and these equipment selections would 
have to be researched over time for a given flight.  This was true of 
all four flights.  That's not an accident.  Just the process of flight 
selection, which doubtlessly required research into everything from on-
time departure history to flight time to flight path to air traffic 
control procedure, is a complex one.  It's no accident that flights for 
"American" and "United" were selected- both for political reasons (what 
carriers aside from perhaps "US Air" could be more a symbol of 
America?) and for scheduling and equipment selection.  None of the four 
hijacked pilots started squawking 7600 on transponders- which is 
generally triggered with a panic switch- indicating that the terrorists 
probably had specific knowledge of where this switch was in the given 
aircraft type and prevented the pilot from triggering it.  Weather at 
the target sites is a major factor- fog, rain or even heavy smog could 
easily have foiled the attack.  That had to be factored in timing.  
Weather anywhere on the Easy coast or Midwest even the West might have 
impact flight path, or flight cancellation.  One wonders if some of the 
weather delays last month and last week might not have altered the 
timing of the attack- these kinds of operations rarely go off without a 
hitch on the first try.  This theory is supported by the fact that two 
of the suspects extended their lease for two extra weeks right before 
the hijackings.  Since four attacks were coordiated on the same day 
there must have been some provision for last minute cancellation, to 
prevent one cell or another from launching solo.  Photo intelligence 
had to have been collected.  It seems also clear that the targets were 
scheduled to coincide with rush-hour or just post rush-hour impacts for 
maximum effect.  The coordination of "arrival" times of the planes was 
amazingly accomplished.  It seems clear that primary and secondary 
targets were selected- in the case of the Pentagon attack it seems that 
the Pentagon was a secondary target.  Still impressive because the 
Pentagon is Class B airspace- as restricted as it gets.  Two planes 
were sent after each macro target.  "Two is one and one is none."  The 
World Trade Center was doubtlessly selected partially because it didn't 
come down after the first attack, and perhaps partially because of the 
particular construction of the WTC that might make it more vulnerable 
to the attack.  Anyone who knows anything about flying multiengine 
planes will recognize that at least the second strike on the WTC was an 
impressive bit of flying.  It was not an unskilled, inexperienced pilot 
who accomplished that.

There is little doubt that "trial runs" were done, that the terrorists 
took the targeted flights as normal passengers themselves before 
actually executing the operation.  Almost all the flights were taken 
within 20-40 minutes of takeoff.  Clearly, this was planned based on 
the patterns of operation of the flights.

The result: 100% of the executed hijacking attempts were successful- 
any aborts were done so far without detection which is equally 
remarkable either because there were no aborted attempts or the aborts 
were done so stealthily.

75% of the planes hit a primary or secondary target.  This was not 
luck.  Period.  Too much went too perfectly in four entirely separate 
field operations.  That is a remarkable.  Very remarkable.  Anyone who 
has actually conducted any type of hostile territory field operation 
will realize that it was meticulous skill and the result of substantial 
planning- not luck.  Period.

"Air Force One was a target."

These terrorists were far too sophisticated to really believe they 
could hit Air Force One.  It may have been a target of opportunity but 
I tend to doubt this.  Too much research went into that attack to try 
and hit a entirely unpredictable and very highly mobile target with the 
level of protection that Air Force One enjoys.  These terrorists were 
NOT stupid.  Predicting the flight path and schedule of the plane 
without radar or other real-time intelligence is effectively 
impossible.  Soft, stationary targets were picked and target selection 
was reconsidered in real-time at least in the case of the Pentagon 
strike.  That's not accident.  That's careful planning.

Assertion:  "The overt sophistication of this attack was such that I 
have a hard time believing the perps would leave so many obvious clues 
behind without intending to."

These are suicide attacks.  Why do they care what clues they leave?

I have no doubt that the neophytes and the wanna-be's who have seen the 
movie "Air Force One" or read "Debt of Honor" 6 times, perhaps even 
some politicos with agendas, will continue to muddy the water with 
dense speculation cast as fact.  Try to think for yourself, people.  
Don't get caught in funeral hype.

Duh.