Cypherpunk failures

[Nomen Nescio]

Declan McCullagh wrote:
> I'm told this bill is expected to become law by Christmas.
>
> >The Secretary of State shall issue, and may from time to time revise, a 
> >code of practice relating to the retention by communications providers of 
> >communications data obtained by or held by them...

Speaking of laws by Christmas, anyone want to give odds on the accuracy
of Tim May's prediction on September 13:

   Dark times are coming. I'll bet a complete ban on strong, unescrowed 
   crypto is passed in all European countries, Russia, China, Japan, and 
   the U.S. by, say, December 15th.

and

   I'm betting, as I said in my last post, that strong unescrowed crypto 
   will be illegal by December 15th.

Does anyone think this prediction will come true?  Or is it as mistaken
as so many other Tim May predictions over the years?  And by the way,
who was Tim May betting with?  Hopefully the sum they stand to gain
is substantial.

The larger question is, what is it about the cypherpunk worldview which
is so wrong?  Why do cypherpunks constantly predict events which don't
come true?  And is this faulty vision responsible for the failure of
the cypherpunks to maintain their cultural and technological influence,
and to make progress towards their goals?

The most crippling error of the cypherpunks has been their unremitting
pessimism.  Ever since the group was created they have predicted imminent
crackdowns on cryptography.  And yet the trend has consistently been in
the opposite direction.  Rather than keeping to an optimistic vision of a
better world, cypherpunks have sunk into a morass of doomsaying.  The Y2K
debacle was perhaps the most prominent example of failed pessimism.
Why work on crypto if the world is coming to an end?

Another mistake has been to view the world in simplistic terms of black
and white, true patriots versus those who "need killin'".  Government
in this view is a monolithic entity with the single-minded goal of
destroying individual rights and creating a tyrannical dictatorship.
Society is composed of "sheeple" who are ignorant of their own best
interests and easily manipulated by those in power.  This view ignores
the complex nature of political and corporate influence and the many
competing groups which vie for power in the world.

And of course much energy has been wasted in internal debate and rhetoric
which, because founded on these erroneous points, has been useless and
irrelevant.  It's easier to moan and complain when bad things happen
than to adopt a positive view of the world and work in an optimistic
way to make it happen.

Meanwhile the most interesting technological changes are passing the
cypherpunks by.  The open source movement, peer to peer exchange, the
music and copyright wars, all have had little impact in the cypherpunk
world.  Peer to peer technology alone has tremendous potential as a
foundation for long-term cypherpunk dreams like anonymizing proxies,
encrypted data sharing, eternity, even DC nets.  Encryption should be
a fundamental part of file sharing systems.  Digital reputations are
the solution to the problem of bogus data being maliciously inserted
into networks in order to clog them and interfere with searches.
Crypto protocols can help against some kinds of denial of service attacks.

If cypherpunks had been engaged in the world over the last few years
instead of staring into their pessimistic navels, they could have played
a part in today's revolutions.  As it is, they appear to be "headed
for the trash heap of history," to use Tim May's unfortunate phrase.

Maybe it's not too late.  But if this group is ever to resume its role
as an exciting place where the future of computing is visible, it must
refocus its efforts.  Cypherpunks should think positively, look past
current troubles, and start talking again about crypto technology and
how it can change the world.  That would be a conversation worth having.