Cypherpunk failures

[jamesd at echeque.com]

    --
On 18 Nov 2001, at 2:00, Nomen Nescio wrote:
> The larger question is, what is it about the cypherpunk
> worldview which is so wrong?  Why do cypherpunks constantly
> predict events which don't come true?

Those who plan revolution always overestimate the pace of
change, just as those who start companies always overestimate
the profits, and those who schedule software projects always
under estimate the time and cost.  The trend has mostly been
as predicted.  The timing has been badly off.

Nonetheless, revolutions happen, companies get started and
sometimes become profitable, and once in a while, very
rarely, software projects even get completed.

> And is this faulty vision responsible for the failure of 
> the cypherpunks to maintain their cultural and
> technological influence, and to make progress towards their
> goals?

I write code.  Right now that code is being used for purposes
I very much approve of.   I expected that code to move
mountains.  In actual fact it has made a small dent in one
mountain, but not an entirely insignificant dent.  I intend
to write some more code.

So though the cypherpunks list is moribund, and cypherpunks
are no longer fashionable, I see progress towards our goals.

> The most crippling error of the cypherpunks has been their
> unremitting pessimism.

Could have fooled me.  The predictions of imminent
cataclysmic national ruin are from our point of view more a
matter of optimism rather than pessimism.  Further, these
predictions should not be taken all that seriously.  The
typical cypherpunk has a small amount of gold and ammo buried
in some peculiar place, and occaisionally practices his
shooting and martial arts, but these are a matter of
insurance rather than real expectations.  From the smallness
of the amount of gold buried, and the rather second rate
accuracy of his shooting, one can infer he really does not
expect imminent catastrophe.

> Another mistake has been to view the world in simplistic
> terms of black and white, true patriots versus those who
> "need killin'".  Government in this view is a monolithic
> entity with the single-minded goal of destroying individual
> rights and creating a tyrannical dictatorship.

Obviously government is not a monolithic entity.   The
movement towards tyrannical dictatorship is more like a wall
slowly slumping, than any cynical and well worked out plan. 
Nonetheless, it moves towards tyrannical dictatorship.

> Meanwhile the most interesting technological changes are
> passing the cypherpunks by.  The open source movement, peer
> to peer exchange, the music and copyright wars, all have
> had little impact in the cypherpunk world.  Peer to peer
> technology alone has tremendous potential as a foundation
> for long-term cypherpunk dreams like anonymizing proxies, 
> encrypted data sharing, eternity, even DC nets.  Encryption
> should be a fundamental part of file sharing systems.
> Digital reputations are the solution to the problem of
> bogus data being maliciously inserted into networks in
> order to clog them and interfere with searches. Crypto
> protocols can help against some kinds of denial of service
> attacks.

Mojo nation.

Of course the reason a really strong product like mojo nation
has not proven popular is precisely because there is not
enough of a crackdown.  If the authorities really got heavy
on the napster clones, then our skills would be more in
demand, and our plans would move forward faster.  As the left
is fond of saying, "repressive tolerance".

This crack down on the hawalas network may well personally
profit me. In this case it may well be that the laws advance,
rather than prevent, the development of digital money. 

    --digsig
         James A. Donald
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     EPFIzwETMpz6qjYGZsYx40AuxWjJ2ExSKGIyrKh+
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