Math, ethics, futurism, politics...

Ray Dillinger bear at sonic.net
Tue Jan 23 00:08:03 PST 2001




On Tue, 23 Jan 2001, dmolnar wrote:

>
>
>Even so - in math class I am told "if two reasonable people start from
>the same premises, they should arrive at the same conclusion." In
>philosophy I find that Frege called a failure to apply the same laws of
>logic a "new form of madness." 
>
>In the ethics course, I am told "we always expect reasonable people to
>arrive at *different* conclusions." 
>
>Odd. 

No, it's not at all odd.  Your math prof neglected to mention that 
the two people must also start with the same objectives.  (In math, 
they always assume that people are all motivated to solve the same 
problem...) Your ethics prof neglected to mention that he assumes 
people's objectives, or values, differ in some way.  

If we had a sufficiently advanced model of economics and politics and 
technical advances, and adequate data, we could sit here and mechanically 
forecast the next 200 years. That's math.  Same premises, same value, 
same conclusion.  

But I might find the forecast future horrifying and you might like it. 
That's ethics; same premises, different values, different conclusions.

And the fact is that we don't have that sufficiently advanced model, 
so even if we accept *some* of the same premises, there are judgement 
calls and guesses we will make during the forecast that the two of us 
make differently.  These constitute different premises.  That's 
futurism.  Different premises, Different values, different conclusions.

However, even if we forecast completely different futures, and I see 
some law as being needed to stop the venusians from stealing our 
cattle in 2059 and you figure the same law will be needed to prevent 
banks from enslaving the last surviving mayan tribe under a mountain 
of debt in 2062, we can get together and work for the passage of that 
law.  That's politics.  Some Different premises, Some different values, 
Some of the same conclusions.


				Bear





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