Microsoft Trial Judge Based His Break-Up "Remedy" On Flawed Theory, Not Facts

Phillip Hallam-Baker hallam at ai.mit.edu
Wed Feb 28 19:46:55 PST 2001





> Microsoft won because of superior reviews? Come on, how stupid do you
> think we are?  So if a company pays for glowing reviews that would be
> okay?

Matthew's argument is that 'network effects' do not exist, based on a
tendentious piece of propaganda pushed by a right wing crank tank. The crank
tank is attempting to proove that the free market is perfect, unsullied by
the possibility of monopoly that obviously ignorant writers such as Adam
Smith wrote at great length about.

Hence the anecdotes such as QWERTY, Betamax are attacked as if they were the
best evidence, the sole evidence even for network effects. This is
historical revisionism in the service of dogmatic ideology.

Positive feedback exists, get over it.


>Obviously they have never tried to sell a product.  It's very
> dificult to get consideration such that you could prove the technical
> merits when there is a large existing supplier.

That is only a weak network effect. People buy from Amazon because they have
a well known brand name, have established a customer reputation etc. But
there is no intrinsic advantage buying from a large online bookseller than a
medium sized one.

There is a big advantage having a VHS video over Betamax however. If you
have VHS you can rent movies from stores, you can send tapes to friends who
have equipment to play it. The fact that a modern day VHS recorder is
technicaly superior to any Betamax machine made is irrelevant. At the time
the standard was set Sony and Betamax had the clearly superior technology.


A network effect exists when there is an intrinsic advantage to join the
bigger network. Operating systems have been understood to have strong
network effects since the 1950s. My company only supports one version of
UNIX for certain products because the cost of QA on each O/S variant is
significant. If we were choosing the technically best O/S platform we would
probably look at of the stripped down, hardened BSD variants, but we choose
the platform that most of our customers are already familliar with -
Solaris.

When I wrote video-games for a living I wrote for the Sinclair ZX Spectrum
with a market of several million users, not the vastly more sophisticated
BBC computer - even though the spectrums would die after about 100 hours use
and need replacement. I would typically replace a spectrum three or four
times within the guarantee period. Writing a game for the bigger market gave
bigger returns. Customers bought the machines supported by the most games.


Network effects are the alpha and the omega of Internet business strategy.

Ironically despite paying for the tendentious propaganda Microsoft appears
to be benefitting from the argument that network effects and 'tipping'
explain the emergence of a single operating system.

I don't know if the DoJ should interpret recent events in Seatle as a divine
attempt to breakup Microsoft. If so it is really time for the DoJ to give up
since it evidently failed.

		Phill





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