CDR: Re: Close Elections and Causality

[George at Orwellian.Org]

Kevin Elliott <k-elliott at wiu.edu> wrote:
%    This is why people who don't know statistics should not be allowed to
%    think... By no means is that number, by itself, of any significance
%    whatsoever.  How many got canceled last election- one number I heard
%    said 14,000.  If so then 19,000 is about what one would expect
%    considering increased voter turnout and normal statistical
%    fluctuations.

Bzzzt! Wrong.

http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB973893500998857873.htm
#
#    November 10, 2000
#
#    Palm Beach Official Disputes Claim By Bush Campaign on Invalid
#    Ballots
#
#    By JACKIE CALMES Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
#
#    WASHINGTON -- The Bush campaign is dead wrong on one of its prime
#    arguments in response to complaints about voter confusion in
#    Florida's Palm Beach County, according to a top county official.
#
#    Palm Beach County Commissioner Carol Roberts said in an interview
#    Friday that about 30,000 ballots were invalidated for their
#    presidential selection this week because voters had punched two
#    holes or none. That is more than twice the 14,000 invalidated
#    in 1996, which could be evidence of some amount of voter confusion
#    about the county ballot's much-criticized design.
#
#    This week, both Bush campaign Chairman Don Evans and chief
#    strategist Karl Rove have claimed that about 19,000 ballots'
#    presidential votes were invalidated, or not significantly more
#    than four years ago, when turnout was lower. But that 19,000
#    represents only the invalidated ballots with two holes punched
#    for president, the commissioner says. More than 10,000 additional
#    ballots were invalidated for having no presidential vote, she
#    explains, for a combined 30,000.
#
#    "It's not a correct argument," Ms. Roberts, a Democrat, said
#    of the Bush officials' contention that this year's invalidated
#    ballots are comparable to the number four years ago. "It's just
#    not accurate."



Kevin Elliott <k-elliott at wiu.edu> wrote:
%    More importantly, the ballot was approved by both
%    parties before the election took place.

Thus demonstrating the ballot design problem is non-partisan.

I asked a [Bush-voting] friend why the live-and-let-die attitude
towards such a large loss of people's votes, and he admitted it
was because he wanted Bush to win, and that Gore probably had
the votes.