CDR: Re: Close Elections and Causality

[Sampo A Syreeni]

On Thu, 9 Nov 2000, Tim May wrote:

>In close elections, as in close sports games, as in the golf example, 
>there will be many events which are later claimed to be "hinge 
>points," or forks.

Which is pretty much caused by the count being seen as an advancing 'race'
with a definite order. I've never understood what the hell is a direct
broadcast all about when all the votes have already been cast.

>Again, a misuse of the term "causation."

Yep. People tend to have trouble with things causal.

>Second, at the time of the "approximately simultaneous" vote on 
>Tuesday, no particular state, no particular county, and no particular 
>precinct had any way of "knowing" that it would be a hinge site. 

In even simpler terms, if there is an actual draw, every single vote is
precisely as much the fork as any other.

Sampo Syreeni <decoy at iki.fi>, aka decoy, student/math/Helsinki university