Water.org and the United Nations (working at UNHQ-NY) have been a big part of Bank.org's success ... https://www.devex.com/news/opinion-un-is-wrong-to-say-700-million-will-be-di... Global ViewsData and development Opinion: UN is wrong to say 700 million will be displaced by drought By Alexander Kjærum // 23 February 2023 Environment & Natural ResourcesHumanitarian AidResearchUnited NationsWMO Internally displaced people in Beletweyne, in the Hiraan region of Somalia, wait to receive food and nonfood items donated by AMISOM troops. Photo by: AMISOM “UN predicts 700 million displaced in Africa by 2030 due to water scarcity” — reads a headline from October 2022. The story behind the number tells a concerning story about the aid sector’s use of big numbers and misleading statistics to advance their agendas. In fact, the number has nothing to do with water scarcity, Africa, or a timeline of 2030. Subscribe to Newswire A comprehensive look at the day’s top global development breaking news, analysis, and opinion Subscribe The October headline was based on a recently released report by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization, but it had also been used over several years, including by the U.N. secretary general, several other U.N. agencies, in particular the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification and UNICEF, and the World Bank and numerous NGOs. The number gained momentum in 2022 as it was included in a draft public version of the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, despite the fact that it was clearly stated that the draft should not be cited or quoted. The number first appeared in a UNESCO report from 2009, which states that between 24 million to 700 million could be displaced globally by water-related factors. While the referencing in the UNESCO report is not entirely clear, it appears that the source of the 700 million is a Christian Aid report from 2007. This report states that up to 1 billion could be displaced by 2050 (not 2030), which includes 645 million that would be displaced due to development projects “such as dams and mines.” Combined with an estimated 50 million displaced by natural disasters this becomes approximately 700 million. There is only very basic math behind these numbers — e.g. the 645 million displaced due to development projects is calculated by the assumption that 15 million are displaced every year, multiplied by 43 years to reach 2050. The mere fact that a flagship U.N. report cites a number from a document which clearly says it should not be cited should raise immediate red flags. — In 2012, the 24 million to 700 million range is then referenced in a UNCCD fact sheet, stating that: “With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world’s population will be living in areas of high water stress by 2030, including between 75 million and 250 million people in Africa. In addition, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid places will displace between 24 million and 700 million people.” This became the source for a number of future references, but in a synthesized version where nuance and meaning get lost, it becomes “high water stress is estimated to affect about 250 million people on the [African] continent and displace up to 700 million individuals by 2030.“ This should be quite obviously wrong to most people for two reasons: 1) The number of displaced people from a hazard or disaster will always be smaller than the ones who are exposed to that same hazard or disaster. Yet in this scenario of 700 million people displaced, that would represent almost three times as many as the 250 million people actually affected by water stress. 2) The 700 million figure would amount to almost half of Africa’s population in 2030. This example reveals several concerning points about the use of big numbers in the humanitarian and development sector. First, when a number range is provided, the highest number regularly ends up being the one that makes the headlines. We see this in the World Bank Groundswell report for example, where the headlines have also been that climate change could lead to 216 million migrants by 2050 without including the range of 44 million to 216 million. Second, the drive to promote big, concerning numbers seems to dilute common sense. While 700 million displaced in the distant future of 2050 might have made some sense in 2007, how can this figure be used in 2022 for a 2030 projection without looking into what the current status is? Based on calculations on data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, 2.6 million people globally were displaced by drought between 2017 and 2021, so quite far from potentially accumulating to 700 million on the African continent by 2030 as per the October 2022 headline. The loss of common sense is related to the fact that people have a very hard time understanding big numbers, which research confirms. When 700 million is used and quoted without context it ends up meaning simply “many people” to a majority of readers. If the quote had used the equally erroneous wording “half of Africa’s population to be displaced by 2030,” I am sure many readers and researchers would have questioned this prediction. More reading: ► Opinion: Data we trust is a vital weapon as diseases gain ground ► What does the data say about climate development funding? (Pro) ► Opinion: Localization is key to avoid climate data misuse Third, it reveals that many humanitarian and development organizations are publishing big numbers without accurately checking their validity or credibility; presumably more intent on gaining attention and funding for their cause. It exposes the extreme big-number fetish in the sector, when what is needed instead is to promote factual, qualitative knowledge about the issues of concern. This 700 million example reveals a concerning lack of review and fact-check internally in many of the leading U.N. agencies and NGOs that continue to publish and use this number. The mere fact that a flagship U.N. report cites a number from a document which clearly says it should not be cited should raise immediate red flags. There is no good reason to always provide the biggest, worst-case scenario number in any range provided in research. By constantly focusing on the largest value in a range, or the most sensational, humanitarian and development communications risk crying wolf and losing credibility among the public, donors, and internal decision-makers. In turn, as these groups are regularly fed numbers and predictions that are very likely not to be true, they will lose faith in the evidence being provided. This poses a significant risk to advancing more evidence- and data-driven development and humanitarian action in a time when it is needed most. To retain some credibility, humanitarian and development agencies should start by focusing on promoting the most realistic scenario numbers. And these numbers should always come with a clear explanation of the methodology behind them and put them into context. Lastly, the sector should focus less on numbers and more on describing the issues qualitatively, which makes it easier for donors and decision-makers to act on it. Editor’s note: By the time of publication, WMO responded to the author’s queries and have subsequently removed the reference to 700 million displaced people in Africa due to water scarcity by 2030 from the “State of the Climate in Africa 2021” report. The views in this opinion piece do not necessarily reflect the views of the Danish Refugee Council. The views in this opinion piece do not necessarily reflect Devex's editorial views. About the author Alexander Kjærum Alexander Kjærum is a global advisor, senior analyst with the Danish Refugee Council. He is leading the work on enhancing the use of data and analysis for strategic planning, programming, and advocacy. He is also the lead on use of predictive analytics and author on the flagship Global Displacement Forecast report.