[HunchLab] Predicting Crime in Miami
This is how it's pitched to the community:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.h...
FTA: The Miami police currently is using COMPSTAT, which does not predict where crime will happen insofar it tells you where it has been taking place. In addition they will start using HunchLab at some point. An associate professor from Florida International University, Rob T. Guerette is expected to become their local expert on this piece of software. The person who wrote the grant for it is Lt. Sean MacDonald.
The article claims that similar software has "... helped prevent and stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes." Which makes me curious as about the kind of heuristics that they are using. HunchLab apparently produces maps showing small areas where specific crimes are likely to be committed. This is not a new turn of events, as Miami-Dade’s robbery division uses IBM's Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software connects to a database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police. Detectives enter the details of an unsolved crime and the program produces a list of 20 suspects. Now the part of the Nuevo Herald's article that cough my attention is the moment that it starts speculating about it's effectiveness. The last few sentences juxtapose the potential volatility of it's predictions with who is responsible for it's "effectiveness". HunchLab uses a wider dataset than the rough equivalent PredPol. Annotated with the official final statement that the tool will only be "...as good as the officers using it." Putting the burden of proof of it's effectiveness squarely on the shoulders of the officers forced to use it. Which is, in my opinion, ridiculous. Since the software is supposed to predict the crime and not the other way around. I highly suspect that it grabs a bunch of data, normalizes it for the use with a map and starts looking for some correlation coefficient and then looks if it's statistically significant. I.e. it's a null hypothesis-- exactly what Larry Samuels, CEO of PredPol tries to warn them about expecting weird results. Since that is exactly what you get when you grow your dataset and statistically analyze the date using correlation coefficients + phi. Anyway. Who build this software? And what does it do?
Looks like it was developed with an $800,000 federal grant and someone from the Philadelphia police dept: http://technical.ly/philly/2013/11/07/azavea-philly-police-crime-prediction-... Interesting article (sorry for no excerpt, I'm currently mobile.) They even use the weather as a variable? Main site: hunchlab.com Still have to look up Azavea and see who's behind them/ how much money they suck from the fed teat. ---------- On June 24, 2015 9:42:54 AM Tim Beelen <tim@diffalt.com> wrote:
This is how it's pitched to the community:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.h...
FTA: The Miami police currently is using COMPSTAT, which does not predict where crime will happen insofar it tells you where it has been taking place. In addition they will start using HunchLab at some point.
An associate professor from Florida International University, Rob T. Guerette is expected to become their local expert on this piece of software. The person who wrote the grant for it is Lt. Sean MacDonald.
The article claims that similar software has "... helped prevent and stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes."
Which makes me curious as about the kind of heuristics that they are using.
HunchLab apparently produces maps showing small areas where specific crimes are likely to be committed.
This is not a new turn of events, as Miami-Dade’s robbery division uses IBM's Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software connects to a database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police. Detectives enter the details of an unsolved crime and the program produces a list of 20 suspects.
Now the part of the Nuevo Herald's article that cough my attention is the moment that it starts speculating about it's effectiveness. The last few sentences juxtapose the potential volatility of it's predictions with who is responsible for it's "effectiveness".
HunchLab uses a wider dataset than the rough equivalent PredPol. Annotated with the official final statement that the tool will only be "...as good as the officers using it."
Putting the burden of proof of it's effectiveness squarely on the shoulders of the officers forced to use it. Which is, in my opinion, ridiculous. Since the software is supposed to predict the crime and not the other way around.
I highly suspect that it grabs a bunch of data, normalizes it for the use with a map and starts looking for some correlation coefficient and then looks if it's statistically significant. I.e. it's a null hypothesis-- exactly what Larry Samuels, CEO of PredPol tries to warn them about expecting weird results. Since that is exactly what you get when you grow your dataset and statistically analyze the date using correlation coefficients + phi.
Anyway. Who build this software? And what does it do?
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA512 On 06/24/2015 10:17 AM, Shelley wrote:
Looks like it was developed with an $800,000 federal grant and someone from the Philadelphia police dept:
They're going to start rolling something similar out in Oakland, CA: http://www.eastbayexpress.com/oakland/oakland-mayor-schaaf-and-police-seek-u... - -- The Doctor [412/724/301/703/415] [ZS] PGP: 0x807B17C1 / 7960 1CDC 85C9 0B63 8D9F DD89 3BD8 FF2B 807B 17C1 WWW: https://drwho.virtadpt.net/ "Contemporary reality is like an overlapping set of dire science-fictional scenarios." --William Gibson -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- iQIcBAEBCgAGBQJVivMeAAoJED1np1pUQ8RkNn8P/0+UAvUAQpuHnjEa5npo/oUb jNnsY6ir+373pn/pWWFLSoM79kalSzc7KdOutwB7Da8DR/jIv+W2mPgwPP6syHOm ZYmyK1caLxQ4CM4U/FvyaRNI2lVVJEmpIjsbeOOfHXKqMyve0R2sSzVa/Rv2F//K QjXIzRVJeaTxnu0CxMw/xQ5+Z0zLZJPKRWD4vDMEgcIGYko6W8f1pp9aSrFukCn0 DN2qhSQ2gIA7YjIw2YW+PW7UQds7NiuJ3l5zpqEfKxqyFSDqJsEPwDby7MF3yvaR LW6Gy6u0fxHLuGmxl7VYwnF9ufvXSbqzzL5/p1xFe8kmSxpqui5K7KU9KacsfxI3 +DJf14YOzD0g0t16e2+x343yTLr4OMmir/FRAgP8++pjPo0NtgzwSs3FeDUmnlhD Qk4/GM5hAdVSsJixh+D+kH92j2uAk8rH51rDZe2kP1prEJXHSZ/VnYHHen4Db3dE iw0fHCXF8O3HJmbcE7ZUc5agz1URZSE2XP3n1njkn9ziz48T3pLIfQ1uS8sKnYLb /uCUtuzRbfKWPVQq2ZJcJ2vNxvANoyl7u+7kSscTl47+/YE1KaN3gil1fJUrB1YS 5UVDOnb+7U577nfzaFq1Y15Inoy4zj45fnFt6dpIAdrsVBraVdSxINMPOU9J35An 2MtNeAIpCcXNdWjNzVXr =vrpk -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
On 06/24/2015 09:31 AM, Tim Beelen wrote:
This is how it's pitched to the community:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.h...
FTA: The Miami police currently is using COMPSTAT, which does not predict where crime will happen insofar it tells you where it has been taking place. In addition they will start using HunchLab at some point.
Locally, the police department decided to partner with PredPol /(snigger: 'Server And Protect')/. Early one morning at Starbucks I saw a shift captain who also did PD PR work on the phone discussing an article that was about to appear regarding the topic in a local newspaper. He emphatically and repeatedly said: "DO NOT call it 'Predictive Policing'!" He obviously didn't believe it was a correct phrase to describe "Guessing". RR Ps. The use of computers to resolve cold-cases mentioned below isn't really relevant to the topic of computers allegedly predicting future crime. ALso, I suspect predictive software will simply create better opportunities for more convincing false flag operations by people affiliated with (but perhaps not directly connected to) police agencies. I'd extrapolate on those operations (at least ones noted locally) but [off-topic], so I decline.
An associate professor from Florida International University, Rob T. Guerette is expected to become their local expert on this piece of software. The person who wrote the grant for it is Lt. Sean MacDonald.
The article claims that similar software has "... helped prevent and stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes."
Which makes me curious as about the kind of heuristics that they are using.
HunchLab apparently produces maps showing small areas where specific crimes are likely to be committed.
This is not a new turn of events, as Miami-Dade’s robbery division uses IBM's Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software connects to a database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police. Detectives enter the details of an unsolved crime and the program produces a list of 20 suspects.
Now the part of the Nuevo Herald's article that cough my attention is the moment that it starts speculating about it's effectiveness. The last few sentences juxtapose the potential volatility of it's predictions with who is responsible for it's "effectiveness".
HunchLab uses a wider dataset than the rough equivalent PredPol. Annotated with the official final statement that the tool will only be "...as good as the officers using it."
Putting the burden of proof of it's effectiveness squarely on the shoulders of the officers forced to use it. Which is, in my opinion, ridiculous. Since the software is supposed to predict the crime and not the other way around.
I highly suspect that it grabs a bunch of data, normalizes it for the use with a map and starts looking for some correlation coefficient and then looks if it's statistically significant. I.e. it's a null hypothesis-- exactly what Larry Samuels, CEO of PredPol tries to warn them about expecting weird results. Since that is exactly what you get when you grow your dataset and statistically analyze the date using correlation coefficients + phi.
Anyway. Who build this software? And what does it do?
On Wed, Jun 24, 2015 at 4:30 PM, Razer <Rayzer@riseup.net> wrote:
Ps. The use of computers to resolve cold-cases mentioned below isn't really relevant to the topic of computers allegedly predicting future crime. ALso, I suspect predictive software will simply create better opportunities for more...
They will construct and spit out "solutions" that will seem completely believable to humans (such as police, prosecutors, judges, and juries), chock full of "supporting evidence" that you are guilty... even though you're innocent. Because that's what they've been programmed to do... find a solution that fits. Just like the ones that fit the death row exonerates. It's all so infallible, you see. Guilt before innocence, defense can't compete, case closed.
Guilt before innocence, defense can't compete, case closed.
Exactly! This "project" contradicts the whole basis of the Judicial/Court System in which everything is built upon the "presumption of innocence". Now, there is going to be a legalized&official "presumption of guilt"! It's a disaster.
participants (6)
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grarpamp -
Razer -
Shelley -
The Doctor -
Tim Beelen -
Александр