*A numbers game* [image: A shipment of USAID-provided ventilators.] <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POiOvnGeQ-zn4UTo7PNRd8VUryOJQi28wZ_015CvSi2_cbrIvnHb98imZwErfKFFY2rHRI3PDUZctbENDGg0Mk4BHEOeCHHoLFhpdvlb5HUSbUg1sSHRwcJIR1epAhZRit13QmmMqSVI6SvN69CyItXqWBZcBeG_uESsHS-GAdZoNph81fqXvtBtx_CUo7iXCVh18XAKJuVmBLT-eTjxrn_QqjETaTl-clPR26ZxFX5Q1/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=> From the beginning of, well, the end of USAID <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu7-eh-4bvgPTBbAfecyO_4B4qeRYSn9Mgf4kc6bE8Z6-8dFhY5gxyLCUxtClGbJ9hjc=>, everyone has been trying to figure out which contracts and grants got the ax — and which didn’t. The terminations seem to be a constantly moving target <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POrHUo-5KRfbBK_1WFNkKZUL_7wBocjL6jS1J4B7wg1L-aQ0wvMa1cTdWfO4WwxTUw1ZwLMDL8O0W_BPk0asx2x3OS8SObWm0hjc1cMSREfMjOOmd_xxclP90R7hwQvk_soXLfnCNudxQdYCIEO_XZWzmmEbuRzPhevtdJhdhJ-OvJTDgfVkLikJaMYeXOaikNGQfjdWJn4LUZi80aOjf7b6br5YEdIJ7N8xCSYwoCmwL/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=>, and even members of the U.S. Congress have fought <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POoK4CppZ69ugRLYT2C7iMxWV3GpH5vhC4QmEfJxw2oHRQ_jty33LeR_wjTpi7Kbqj61_LtOACzcu5LC5kV2Rj8Pu9Id2CJPi8IYbu-ttHlkE-o0djsXTqD-xekNJfPpuSa8i4ftrw4Socfu_vY43CBR0VaJPYNuSvY8hYp1jPIJkxo5EUBEltduv0ICqLSpkGp_rc935k0MV__KTmX6C7eXd1JR33d09pC0P0kCUJDfhhNE2PKanKkyKQgUwpWcqgQ==/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=> to pin down a precise list. Leaked lists are floating around LinkedIn, though their provenance hasn’t been established. The State Department has announced that 83% of USAID programming has been eliminated <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POo8HNH4qA6QBf2b2qD0apMeBXMO326iPVvKmEd36iRU6MzMF4gKzVql4kYJU9ha0hLQZhGV8-e5CE_ziWtYyfSU3l2wbQ6ZY2S6h8rl2goZdtQ7uUnFFJR71R_h0Mhc_-6tJQlOYgEoMQhhOKkHM2k1wRKSHjkdgt4ay2sIJ7BWJTaeirO4Nh-dCcO-fAZ9aL4BHzr8Fq7H3iXy0Ccwse3YCKWDf-8il-T21oFImL8S2zHbbUM3O8Vv2hFWR_hstcC2bvsSrrS1jZZ5OUYfDIeQ=/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=>, which adds up to about 5,200 programs, with 1,000 spared. But what if those numbers are off? <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POiOvnGeQ-zn4UTo7PNRd8VUryOJQi28wZ_015CvSi2_cbrIvnHb98imZwErfKFFY2rHRI3PDUZctbENDGg0Mk4BHEOeCHHoLFhpdvlb5HUSbUg1sSHRwcJIR1epAhZRit13QmmMqSVI6SvN69CyItXqWBZcBeG_uESsHS-GAdZoNph81fqXvtBtx_CUo7iXCVh18XAKJuVmBLT-eTjxrn_S3dBOqH76uMkRxwiGKv44R/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=> Way off? According to the Center for Global Development <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu8PoKfhGYUCq6uHfd4Y0Hhk4wmk4Dg9oZ6MJVhm3UIQhjAGEnDYyF76yMRiydL8hUvQ=> , *far more planned USAID spending may have been retained* than previously thought. The think tank made calculations based on two leaked lists of canceled and retained USAID awards which have been widely circulated in the aid community. CGD says it is likely that only around *34% of all USAID awards, by dollar value, have been terminated*, though it cautions that figure comes with several caveats, including that the lists have not been verified. Still, a picture emerges of sectors that have been the most and least affected. Among those completely or almost completely eliminated are private sector competitiveness; higher education; political competition and consensus building; infrastructure; good governance; basic education; family planning; civil society; conflict mitigation; and trade and investment. *Food, health, and humanitarian aid seem to have seen relatively fewer cuts*, which tracks with recent proposals for a new, narrower focus on U.S. aid <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POuQ58nbdcJsMKAvb_Rc1ILvFezSdX1wv6DvZR_aAX847FqEzMmGnTC15XXA8aWJXosepLx0vDtpdDpFGVX8kXcja53Tx2xUy3AhtHQUs9ogZ5M_u0ccLbqxAEaa-g2CGN5gJM-V9-Tsplk8OTysIhvftYi8BKQwN7ErA10MwkJZ0jYJYVufmA1VkGebzFV2mJEAuUP-2BxtkS4MsdH3Ytn1igXWdhSl6T7vTTe9NqY5_W8a_Q6jDGyD706i2hU-TWw==/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=> . Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at CGD and one of the blog’s authors, was quick to highlight that while his calculations showed things in a better light, it was not all positive. “Compared to the numbers we were seeing, it’s better,” he says. “But it’s a long way from good.” *Read:* Has USAID spending been cut by less than we thought? <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POiOvnGeQ-zn4UTo7PNRd8VUryOJQi28wZ_015CvSi2_cbrIvnHb98imZwErfKFFY2rHRI3PDUZctbENDGg0Mk4BHEOeCHHoLFhpdvlb5HUSbUg1sSHRwcJIR1epAhZRit13QmmMqSVI6SvN69CyItXqWBZcBeG_uESsHS-GAdZoNph81fqXvtBtx_CUo7iXCVh18XAKJuVmBLT-eTjxrn_QbxXfPU-EHwvmraciaEFgu/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGZZsypu6DM09BvPJ_ePB9PyAFbVd7FVlb2pjSUv8J9p-QxoSOjv1nOaMtbsO3hF06vk0iXJAY=>