Last one, for now. Please redistribute freely. Peter Fairbrother 4- The Whole of the Moon 17 March 2020 The good news: the worst-hit (or first hit) countries are now stopping their coronavirus epidemics. China has done pretty much stopped their epidemic spreading [1], in South Korea it is dying out [2], in Iran [3] and perhaps Italy [4] it is getting less of a hold, though it is a bit early to say in Italy's case. How can we be sure of that? Simple. The daily numbers of new cases are falling in all those countries, reaching very low levels in China and South Korea. They have all implemented strong isolation, and it is working for them. In none of them have even one thousandth of the population become, or are likely to become, infected (though Italy may come close). There is no known case where strong isolation is failing to stop the infection. China and South Korea are considering restrictions on people entering their countries in order to prevent infected people bringing the disease in, as that is now their major source of new infections. The bad news: the UK's present policy is still to delay the epidemic rather than try to stop it, allowing over 60% of the population to catch the disease at a projected cost of 400,000 UK deaths (UK Government figures). - So why does the UK government still insist strong isolation will not work for us? It doesn't have to be very onerous. Something like this: schools close, as do universities, pubs, public gatgerings. Most people stay at home for perhaps 4 weeks. During that four weeks we make a lot of masks, respirators and other protective gear. We prepare a very large number of tests. We prepare ventilators and people to operate them, and hospital and hospital beds in case the confinement does not work, though it should. We plan. We research the virus. During the fourth week we test anyone who might have the virus. After the four weeks that number should be about one thousand. It is estimated that there are a few tens of thousands of active virus cases now, at the end of the four weeks that should be around five thousand, many of whom will be in hospital and most of the rest will be isolated. After the first isolation period we implement mandatory testing if a doctor or trained nurse or a policy requires it, and mandatory quarantine if infected people do not self-isolate. Medium-term we limit personal contact, wear masks, wash hands, bump elbows, supply handrub. We monitor all suspected infections and contacts. Schools stay closed until we know more, but people mostly go back to work. Until we find a vaccine or cure or the disease dies out, we implement long-term restrictions on entry to the country - perhaps five days quarantine, with a test on the fifth day. That will not catch everybody, but it will probably catch enough people. I suggest UK people already abroad should not have to pay for this, but for UK people leaving then re-entering and foreigners the cost should be included in the ticket price, a bit like airport taxes. That will not be enough to stop the virus completely, but it will be a good start. We will by then have a better idea of which measures are necessary and which are not. Perhaps one or two thousand people will die. We may have to repeat this, or bring in other measures - but like China, South Korea, Iran and Italy, if we persevere we will stop the virus. - But we have to implement strong isolation now - any delay will cost lives. The Government's alternative is to let the virus infect 40 million people or so, just slowing it down a little. On the Government's own figures that will involve four hundred thousand deaths. This delay policy must stop, now. We want to kil the disease, not delay it. - Suppose we try hard to stop the virus and it fails. We will have had time to prepare for the peak, time to build ventilators, time to train staff to use them, time to make masks, time to expand testing, time to provide more hospital beds - time to research the virus, maybe even time to develop a vaccine or cure. But then suppose we try hard and succeed. It seems most other countries will succeed too, and the disease will wither away or remain at a very low level until a vaccine or cure can be found. We know how to do strong isolation for infection prevention, and all the examples in other countries show where it has been tried it is working - we need to do it now. We also need to drop SAGE, the UK Scientific Advisory Committee on Emergencies. Preferably from a great height. [1] Daily New Cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ [2] Daily New Cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ [3] Daily New Cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/ [4] Daily New Cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ Peter Fairbrother Slogans for today: Don't delay the epidemic, kill it. Don't delay, kill the coronavirus. Kill the epidemic, not the people.