How Were So Many Economists So Wrong About the Recession? https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-26/what-recession-how-so-... Last year at this time, 85% of economists in one poll predicted a recession this year — and that was an optimistic take compared to the 100% probability of a recession forecast two months earlier. Meanwhile US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, drawing upon the work of his highly able staff, expressed fear in March that bringing down the rate of inflation would cost millions of American jobs.