On 11/01/2015 01:52 PM, Juan wrote:
On Sun, 1 Nov 2015 01:16:15 -0700 coderman <coderman@gmail.com> wrote:
On 11/1/15, Juan <juan.g71@gmail.com> wrote:
... It seems (kinda obvious) to me that to get rid of 'high ranking' targets you need a 'professional' service, agree?
no, this is movie plot thinking.
Ha. That's a funny remark because I was just thinking that AP does sound like literary fiction so far.
Well, the idea has been kicked around for 20 years, and little has come of it. Maybe that's because it's still unworkable. How are people going to bid anonymously? Is Tor good enough for that? A viable AP market would draw TLAs to Tor like dogs to shit. And they would cooperate.
Also, how would bidders pay anonymously when targets were killed? There is no inherently anonymous payment system that's widely available. Maybe anonymized Bitcoin, after a few mixes through Tor, would make the nut. Or maybe creative carding. Maybe y'all reading this could manage it. But what about the clueless masses who might be motivated to bid?
I don't know whether AP would take down governments. Hell, I'm not even sure whether that would be prudent. But I am certain that many bidders would go down, through cluelessness or system compromise.
The theory, I thought, was a simple prediction market. Based on actuarial statistics by Social Security, people usually have less than a 1% chance of dying per year (Fidel Castro seems to have a 0% chance), so guessing the right death year is pretty "lucky". The person who guesses correctly would receive the pot of money. The real problem is that the prediction market will be regulated out of existence. You have any idea how regulated the resale of life insurance contracts are? That and, how do you trust the prediction market? It has to be a company with a mailing address, otherwise one could just run away with the money. Personally, I believe a good prediction market would be one limited to predicting deaths and the overthrow of governments.
On 11/02/2015 02:22 AM, Ryan Carboni wrote: [Mirimir wrote:]
On 11/01/2015 01:52 PM, Juan wrote:
On Sun, 1 Nov 2015 01:16:15 -0700 coderman <coderman@gmail.com> wrote:
On 11/1/15, Juan <juan.g71@gmail.com> wrote:
... It seems (kinda obvious) to me that to get rid of 'high ranking' targets you need a 'professional' service, agree?
no, this is movie plot thinking.
Ha. That's a funny remark because I was just thinking that AP does sound like literary fiction so far.
Well, the idea has been kicked around for 20 years, and little has come of it. Maybe that's because it's still unworkable. How are people going to bid anonymously? Is Tor good enough for that? A viable AP market would draw TLAs to Tor like dogs to shit. And they would cooperate.
Also, how would bidders pay anonymously when targets were killed? There is no inherently anonymous payment system that's widely available. Maybe anonymized Bitcoin, after a few mixes through Tor, would make the nut. Or maybe creative carding. Maybe y'all reading this could manage it. But what about the clueless masses who might be motivated to bid?
I don't know whether AP would take down governments. Hell, I'm not even sure whether that would be prudent. But I am certain that many bidders would go down, through cluelessness or system compromise.
The theory, I thought, was a simple prediction market. Based on actuarial statistics by Social Security, people usually have less than a 1% chance of dying per year (Fidel Castro seems to have a 0% chance), so guessing the right death year is pretty "lucky".
The person who guesses correctly would receive the pot of money.
The real problem is that the prediction market will be regulated out of existence. You have any idea how regulated the resale of life insurance contracts are?
That and, how do you trust the prediction market? It has to be a company with a mailing address, otherwise one could just run away with the money.
Personally, I believe a good prediction market would be one limited to predicting deaths and the overthrow of governments.
participants (2)
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Mirimir -
Ryan Carboni