On presidents and death
From my blog: https://j.ludost.net/blog/archives/2019/03/26/on_presidents_and_death/index.... Since the office was established in 1789, 44 persons have served as President of the United States. Of these, eight presidents have died in office, four were assassinated and four died of natural causes [1]. 8/44 ~ 1/5 so about one in five US presidents dies in office. In Bulgaria (Eastern Europe) there is another statistical trend. Of the five Bulgarian Presidents since 1990 [2] two lost a child while alive. (If you add T. Jivkov from socialism time they become three). So the probability of losing a child is 2/5 = 0.4 The conclusion is left as an exercise for the reader, because the margin is too small. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_who_di... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Bulgaria#Republic_of...)
On 3/26/19, Georgi Guninski <guninski@guninski.com> wrote:
https://j.ludost.net/blog/archives/2019/03/26/on_presidents_and_death/index....
President of the United States. Of these, eight presidents have died Of the five Bulgarian Presidents since 1990 two lost a child
The conclusion is left as an exercise for the reader, because the margin is too small.
Aren't prediction markets meant to ascertain the likelihood of whether, and if so even perhaps when, such events as Trump and Ivanka perishing in a joint accident, might actually occur? As opposed to the certainty of a market evaluating the Sun rising this Sunday or not, what is the expected margin of error a strong well established market might bring to such unusually difficult predictions as above?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_who_di... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Bulgaria
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