Various wrote:
https://mailing-list-archive.cryptoanarchy.wiki/archive/1996/11/e64f667c2786... cc9be681fd5656895f2/ Message ID: v03007804aea877ef27a6
How am I going to get paid? I don't mean some pseudoanonymous mechanism of payment, but who decides I get paid? Who do I complain to if I don't get paid?
hash of a document describing the intended details you pseudonymously complain to the public If they cannot prove it ... they lose power.
An autonomous General Prediction Market (GPM) is expected to morph those "human" problems away. Such a system would have a reliable survivable uncensorable distributed P2P VM node network executing a number of functions on its platform. Most of the theoretical bits do exist as pieces today, with the last piece being the AI language processors that have recently come online. In effect, a form of p2p distributed computing environment. - Oracle capable of searching and accurately assessing external news sources, self updating its API's to them as it goes. - Claims Processor that interprets formatted received claims and feeds them as queries to the Oracle. - Listing maintenance features, adding, refund on expiry, etc. - A Cryptocurrency protocol to accumulate bids, send awards. However it will be quite some time, probably more than a decade, before people are able to stitch everything all together to create the first truly autonomous GPM's. And when that technological AI Singularity happens you will probably have much bigger things to reckon with than a silly GPM. Now in the intermediate time until autonomous GPM's appear, there are some examples of non-autonomous PM's... There are a few p2p GPM's being built such as Augur, but all to date seem to have included the ability to cancel "unconscionable" markets. Of course it is known that what that really means is cancel culture censoring FreeSpeech, protecting Power from inconvenient inquisition of FreeSpeech, etc. Users may freely fork those projects around such restrictions. And they'll probably want to develop better resistant comms and cryptocurrency networks to run everything over. Then there may be a rise of DAO's to handle some of the needed functions of a PM. DAO's and Governance and Voting and all that are already well described elsewhere. Another set of problems. The fully degenerate case of a Sanjuro style PM has already been run at least a few times over the years. None proved out. A more elegant development upon Sanjuro dispenses with the "website" and uses the "blockchain" itself. Today anyone can run their own Prediction Markets, over a "blockchain" or any other cryptocurrency protocol used to transfer nominal value between addresses. All that is required is that the cryptocurrency (such as Ethereum ETH) supports the ability to send a message (the announcement, and a claim, as an arbitrary txtbin, encrypted and or signed as needed or not) to the same address which is serving as the publicly visible bid accumulator, or to whatever addresses the operator of the PM specifies. Today there are hundreds of such cryptocurrencies to choose from upon which one could run a market. It must be presumed that for all these non-autonomous forms of PM... - The game operator is inclined, by nature of their posing or selecting and running the questions, to have an interest in seeing an accurate prediction as an answer to those questions. - Any game operator that does not prove themselves, via starting with trivially completable questions and increasing to difficult questions, will now likely be ignored as a probable scammer. Thus they will not receive accurate predictions. - Bidders and Claimants will not patronize unproven operators. ... the anonymous drug markets have already proven that those presumptions are working well enough to achieve reasonably stable marketplaces capable of servicing users. Of course Sanjuro's notoriety was notable, so directly running a pertinent set of questions might still work today, but twice fooled will be the last time anyone bids such an unproven operation. It is also notable that the Ultimate Ponzi or Question, for which the market might seem to require high levels of proven trust, does not necessarily ever need to be posed, as in some cases that future question may disappear via the impart of prior lesser predictions... course of history already changed in that direction without ever going there directly. Though the talk of PM's have perhaps yet to be run entirely within a cryptocurrency protocol, there are already hundreds of PM's being run on websites to answer trivial standard fare questions such as outcomes of sports, weather, elections, etc. And there are lots of people coming up with genius methods to use many of today's top-100 cryptocurrency protocols in ways that weren't necessarily specified, forseen, or intended by their original designers. In short, it is possible for people to run PM's today. Designs will grow into becoming native crypto enabled p2p distributed forms of today's legacy Crowdfunding services. GPM's will eventually evolve to be used not just for standard fare, but to "democratize" and disintermediate things that people like, freely away from the central disaster of Government that they don't like. Charity, Roads, Science, Lifespan Longevity, Space Travel, Defense, Fusion Energy, Ridesharing, Voluntaryism, etc. All of these things can be accomplished with Prediction Markets. So if you see a stretch of road in need of repair, try sending the question out for inscription, maybe some other drivers will see it and bid it up, and maybe someone will come to pave the road according to the spec that was sent... no Government required. You might find the results to be pleasantly surprising :)