24 = hours
60 = minutes
7 = days

so I'm only off by a factor of 2^3.3, not by a factor of 2^9.3


Cheers.

On Mon, Dec 8, 2014 at 3:23 AM, Joseph Birr-Pixton <jpixton@gmail.com> wrote:
On 8 December 2014 at 10:40, Ryan Carboni <ryacko@gmail.com> wrote:
> https://blockexplorer.com/q/hashestowin
> log(171833398380382098659*24*60*7)/log(2)

I think your calculation is slightly off. hashestowin is the average
number of hashes you need to perform to win the current block. It's
not necessarily the case that a block is calculated each second: in
fact one is found (on average) each 625 seconds[1].

So that gives:

>>> log(171833398380382098659*24*60*7/625)/log(2)
71.23

Cheers,
Joe

[1] https://blockexplorer.com/q/interval