On 3/26/19, Georgi Guninski
https://j.ludost.net/blog/archives/2019/03/26/on_presidents_and_death/index....
President of the United States. Of these, eight presidents have died Of the five Bulgarian Presidents since 1990 two lost a child
The conclusion is left as an exercise for the reader, because the margin is too small.
Aren't prediction markets meant to ascertain the likelihood of whether, and if so even perhaps when, such events as Trump and Ivanka perishing in a joint accident, might actually occur? As opposed to the certainty of a market evaluating the Sun rising this Sunday or not, what is the expected margin of error a strong well established market might bring to such unusually difficult predictions as above?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_who_di... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Bulgaria