On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 02:30:22PM +0100, Cathal Garvey wrote:
Moore is dead, long live Moore (in 3d volume integration of molecular components, coming in a couple decades).
Well, I'm no singulatarian, but I do think it's naive to expect something as complex and immutable as a block-chain based currency of *any design* to last longer than a decade (or even half that) these
Never mentioned Bitcoin, and I would agree in principle. Due to network effect and apparent good design Bitcoin may last a lot longer than its detractors like to think, but it will fall, eventually.
days, before needing replacement. What you should aim for is relative stability in that term, not the "long term", so that you can transition gently to updated 'coins as they emerge to tackle new technology.
Thankfully we do generally get good advance notice of new technologies. We know that there's progress in Quantum, but we know its not there
I disagree there's palpable progress in QC inasmuch practical computing is concerned, at least in the open literature.
yet. We know there are proof of concept DNA computers, but for now
DNA computers basically don't work.
there's no conceivable architecture for a general-purpose DNA computer; each must be built for the mathematical task to hand (although that doesn't rule out a mental genius creating a sha256-hashing DNA computer and brute-forcing through nigh-infinite parallelism).
You're sampling conformation space of a linear molecule with lots of viscous drag. There is very little infinity in that.
So; design your coins to last as long as they're likely to last. Don't expect or desire them to outlast that. Given the leverage a currency has on an economy, you could even regard a new 'coin as a "budget plan" for the next few years, though god help you if you get it wrong. :)