Spencer Schiff @SpencerKSchiff 20 | Anarcho-capitalist, Bitcoiner, tech enthusiast 20 | Anarcho-capitalist, tech enthusiast, optimist
"My son has moved from fad of Bitcoin to bullish on AI -- Peter" "Bitcoin no major impact, goes to zero, AI is future -- Spencer"
"Oh no, if Peter Schiff's son is no longer bullish on Bitcoin, it's all over folks. I'm going to sell it all and buy Nvidia stock. Wish me luck."
Blackrock begs to differ... Asset Allocation with Crypto: Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness Andrew Ang, Blackrock, February 22, 2022, 43pp https://ssrn.com/abstract=4042239 Asset Allocation Skewness Blackrock "The optimal BTC allocation is a large 84.9%! ... Although BTC has an extremely large volatility of 1.322, the pronounced positive skewness leads to large allocations and dominates in the utility function. -- Blackrock" " Bitcoin (BTC) returns exhibit pronounced positive skewness with a third central moment of approximately 150% per year. They are well characterized by a mixture of Normals distribution with one “normal” regime and a small probability of a “bliss” regime where the price appreciation is more than 100 times at the annual horizon. The large right-tail skew induces investors with preferences for positive skewness to add significant BTC holdings to equity-bond portfolios. Even when BTC is forecast to lose half of its value in the normal regime, investors with power utility optimally add 3% allocations to BTC when the probability of the bliss regime is around 1%. Cumulative Prospect Theory investors are even more sensitive to positive skewness and hold BTC allocations of around 3% when the probability of the bliss regime is 0.0006 and the mean of BTC in the normal regime corresponds to a loss of 90%. Keywords: cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, crypto trading strategy, asset allocation with crypto, portfolio choice, cumulative prospect theory "
Model for when will Crypto be usable as Unit of Account... 50/50 a fine and reasonable allocation for goldbugs.
https://i.redd.it/1kb9nmzk05eb1.png Gold https://i.redd.it/nl72jew1i3eb1.jpg Crypto