Highlights
- Interesting market with high potential, but lack of active users
- Solving a big issue with a bad UX and worrying mechanism design flaws
- No break-through technology and a convoluted resolution process
- Currently way overvalued on the fundamental side
- Augur V2 (to be released in September) might solve some of the issues of the model, but will liquidity and participation rate increase?
Business Description
Augur is the largest fully decentralized and open-source prediction market platform built on top of the Ethereum blockchain. It was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson and Joey (Joseph) Krug. Augur’s ICO in 2015 allowed the organization to raise 5M USD and subsequently launch the mainnet in 2018. The goal of Augur is to provide a betting application (and an entire decentralized financial system, according to the Augur Master Plan published in 2017) that is censorship-resistant from platform providers and government bodies allowing any user to create a prediction market.
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Based on its convoluted resolution model, Augur’s value proposition lies in forecasting and communicating the outcome of real-world events thanks to designated reporters who get rewarded in REP (Reputation, the cryptocurrency for the Augur ecosystem) for every correct reporting on actual events and the ensuing market resolution. This system aims at creating a universe where market odds should align with real-world sentiment towards a specific event by allowing traders to participate in these peer-to-peer prediction markets.