Does it matter whether the crowds can do accurate predictions if the main purpose is for special actors with the skills and interest to be encouraged to create outcomes that are being wagered upon. I've not looked closely at Augur but back in Cpunk days stumped for PMs that included forwards, similar to financial futures, but where the participants could create contracts which narrowed the prediction windows to months, weeks or even days within the greater expiry period (e.g., Dec. 31, 2015) but were not required to specify which month, week or day . By enabling such sub-contract narrowing the benefit for an accurate prediction scales with its temporal ratio with the general contract thus increasing leverage and benefit to special actors.