200,000

On 28/02/2020 22:09, Peter Fairbrother wrote:

Best data I have seen for COVID-19 mortality is from 50 in 10,000 or 0.5% for the young-and-fit to 1,500 in 10,000 or 15% for those over 75 and those with pre-existing heart disease. Diabetes and COPD are also bad co-morbidities to have, at about 10% mortality.

COVID-19 seems to kill mostly the elderly, but not nearly as exclusively as 'flu. The young-and-fit are also very much at risk.

This would give an overall mortality rate of about 150-200 per 10,000 or 1.5%-2%. With an estimated 65% of the US population catching COVID-19 that would be 4 million US deaths: much worse than AIDS, and potentially the worst pandemic since the Plague.

Peter Fairbrother