On 17 May 2017 21:50:36 BST, juan <juan.g71@gmail.com> wrote:
>On Wed, 17 May 2017 14:25:10 -0400
>John Newman <jnn@synfin.org> wrote:
>
>
>>
>> Stanford University economist
>
>       so an 'economist' (LMAO) from the 'intellectual' core of
>       american 'progressive' fascism ('ivy league' universities) is
>       making a completely laughable prediction about...engineering?
>
>       wow, stanford 'economists' seem almost as omniscient as jesus =)
>
>       Oh, and like a good progressive american he's fully convinced
>       that the whole world will be subjected to his 'utopia'
>
>       "petrol cars....no longer  sold anywhere in the world"
>
>       and
>
>       "Cities will ban human drivers"
>
>       Yeah! Land of the free and home of the brave!
>
>
>       So what is this apart from crass propaganda? Sorry John, don't
>       take it personally.
>
>
>
>> Tony Seba forecasts in his new report
>> that petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will no longer be sold
>> anywhere in the world within the next eight years. As a result, the
>> transportation market will transition and switch entirely to
>> electrification, "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise
>> of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century," reports
>> Financial Post. From the report:
>> Seba's premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will
>> switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten
>> times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero
>> marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
>> Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The
>> rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find
>> a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts
>> that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear
>> by 2024. Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how
>> dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs,
>> and then beyond. There will be a "mass stranding of existing
>> vehicles." The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have
>> to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. It is a twin "death spiral"
>> for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big
>> companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time. The
>> long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms of
>> shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will
>> be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia,
>> Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.
>>

Personally I could believe that, in the UK at least, given 5-10 years that EVs will be sold in significant numbers and occupying the place in car sales that diesels currently occupy with total sales dominance over all car sales in about 20 years.
Self-Drivers will grow to share a significant amount of market share in that 20 year timescale.

Of course, I have no qualifications to back up my guesswork so we'll have to wait 20 years to see if my guesswork beats Ivy League economists guesswork lol.

cheers,
oshwm.