# 1 ## THE WEB OF INFLUENCE "When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer." ~ Stevie Wonder, Superstition. It doesn't matter how smart you are. Anyone can be taken in by a human predator. Even an expert on influence. ### you are not a gentleman I was barely awake when the phone rang. The urgent voice at the other end of the line claimed that Microsoft had found a serious problem with my computer. The caller insisted that I log in, immediately: otherwise, the malware would destroy my machine and everything on it. He sounded deeply concerned. I tapped in the letters as he dictated them. A list of over a thousand errors and warnings scrolled down the screen. Yes, I had noticed that the computer had been slowing down. Yes, so many error messages were indeed worrying. "You see," he said, "your computer is about to die." I was having a little difficulty making out his accent; I was concentrating on understanding, rather than on the significance of the call itself. But I was beginning to wake up. "Did you say you're with Microsoft?" I asked. "No, we're partners. We're Microsoft certified. Look on your screen." Sure enough, there was a window with "Microsoft Gold Certified" right there, on the screen. Again, he insisted that my computer would die, _today_, if I did not let him install software to quarantine the many infections. A new window flashed on the screen for £149 (about $200), he would save my computer, and the protection would last for a year, but for another hundred pounds, if I bought the software immediately -- today -- he would extend the protection to five years. "How do I know that you're Microsoft certified?" I asked, stifling a yawn. "Look at your screen," he responded. "Yes, but you can put whatever you want on the screen. Who can I contact at Microsoft, in the UK?" The address for Microsoft in London flashed on the screen. "But the London office won't know who we are," he said. "How did you get my number?" I asked. "If you don't do this right now, your computer will die. What difference does it make to me? I'm paid my salary whether you take my advice or not. I don't work for a commission. You'll lose everything on your computer. It's no skin off my nose." "How did you get my number?" I asked again. "You are not a gentleman!" he said. "I'm trying to help you." He sounded genuinely frustrated. "Hang on a minute," I said. "I won't let you call me names just because I want to be sure your offer is genuine." "It's no skin off my nose," he repeated. "I want to talk to your supervisor," I said. The supervisor came on the line and apologized for the slur. He then repeated the assertion that my computer would die, and I would lose everything on it, if I didn't act _immediately_. "Listen. We'll do the work for free. If you're happy, you can pay us. If not, you can simply walk away without paying a penny." I put the phone down as my computer went through various changes before my eyes. I called my brother Jim. "Switch your machine off, immediately," he urged. "It's a scam. Several of my friends have been caught by it. They leave ransom-ware on the machine, so every few months, you have to buy new add-ons to repair it." I had already pulled the plug. The phone rang again. It was the supervisor. "You've dropped your Internet connection. You are not a gentleman!" "I _am_ a gentleman and _you_ are a scam artist. A criminal." He wanted to argue the point. I hung up. Luckily, my son Ben is a computer expert and later that day he cleaned the machine thoroughly. "Watch out for any pop-ups," he recommended. I have spent a lifetime studying tricks and scams. I can recite the litany of names used by experts to describe these manipulative methods. And yet, I almost fell for this rather obvious confidence trick. There are even web pages warning about this particular company. I didn't buy the fake fix, and no ransomware was left in my computer. I've never sent money to a Nigerian offering to share his inheritance with me if I just give him a few dollars so he can collect. I have never sent a "registration fee" to collect my winnings from the Dutch lottery. When a gorgeous Malaysian girl claimed to lust after my aging body, I did realize it was a scam (though only after exchanging emails for a couple of hours). It is not just the Internet that is rife with scams. Trickery is an aspect of human nature, and it reaches back long before the advent of the worldwide web. Indeed, some students of animal behavior say say that lying is the first stage in the evolution of intelligence. Californian jays have been observed pretending to bury food, and then quickly concealing their actual stash, while their rivals scrabble about in the false hiding place. Pride does indeed come before a fall. If there is one lesson that we should all learn, and relearn, as often as necessary, it is that no one is invulnerable to persuasion. Not even those of us who make it our life's work. Indeed _it is confidence in our invulnerability that make us so vulnerable_. Despite decades of immersion in the world of tricksters, I, too, can still be charmed, cajoled, and led like a lamb to the slaughter. Years ago, I finished my interview with a teenager who had escaped from a notorious authoritarian group only weeks before. He grinned and said, "The great thing is, Jon, that we'll _never_ be conned again." I shook my head, "No, the great is that I realize I'm gullible. And that's my only defense. Whenever I'm brimming over with enthusiasm and ready to reach for my wallet, I try to stop myself and analyze the evidence. Sometimes that saves me money and embarrassment." A few years ago, when Amazon contact me to say I'd won a thousand pounds in their Wishlist lottery, I didn't believe it. And the disbelief did me no harm; it actually made it sweeter when the credit appeared in my account. ### the fraudster's sales kit The phone fraudster -- and his colleagues in a boiler room somewhere in Kolkata or Delhi -- went through a tried-and-tested script that exploited normal feelings and responses. First he created fear: your machine will die. _Emotional pressure always reduces the capacity to reason_. Language can be crafted to direct us away from thinking: psychologists have found that certain words and phrases can bypass our reasoning processes altogether -- "buy now", "new and improved", "for a limited time only" and "every penny counts", for instance. Next, he created a sense of urgency: he wanted me to act immediately, so that I would have no time to think. This is the "buy now" mechanism, which slips past reasoning. When we are buying anything -- from computer software or a second-hand car, to a business training program, to a new religion -- it is important to take our time. This mechanism is recognized legally in some countries, where there is a "cooling off" period in which you can cancel a contract to fit double-glazing or anything else you have been pressured into buying. _If you must "buy now," don't buy at all_. A good scam artist creates rapport. Here the phone scammer failed. He was too urgent, and he was rude. Often as not, when challenged, tricksters protest too much. How could I doubt his word? This is actually a way of generating rapport in reverse. He was suggesting that we had made a connection and that I had violated it by distrusting him. Whenever I hear the phrase: "You can trust me," a voice in my mind whispers: "You can trust me; I'm a con artist." a fraudster's sales kit - inertia -- keep them going in the right direction - emotional pressure -- turn on the heat! - urgency -- don't give them time to think - rapport -- act like a friend and they'll trust you - consistency -- if you can get 'em once... - flocking -- "everybody's doing it!" - scarcity -- "supplies are limited!" - reciprocity -- "let me give you something in return" Rapport is an essential aspect of sales and recruitment. We are far more likely to buy from someone who has become a friend. Instant friendship is almost always a trap. Real friendship takes more than one meeting, just as love at first sight is often simply a matter of psychological projection. We find what we are searching for in the other person, whether it is there or not, because _expectation conditions experience_.
From rapport comes _authority_. We believe our friends, but we also believe people who agree with us, and share our view of the world. Flattery usually works very well at creating rapport, and when someone has shown us that they have the discernment to appreciate our superior qualities, we are open to their opinions about other matters, too.
Once we have sent the first few dollars to the Nigerian heir, the Dutch lottery official or the gorgeous young Malaysian woman, the next tranche of cash comes more easily. Against the protests of her family, on seventy-year-old squandered her every last cent -- some $300,000 -- on a telephone scammer. She lost her home and ended her days on welfare, after alienating her whole family. The power of persuasion is far greater than we like to admit.[2] Once we have committed to a course of action, we tend to continue. It is the inertia of "throwing good money after bad," which is also known as the _sunk cost fallacy_. Once we've decided on a course of action, we tend to keep following it down the slippery slope. Psychologist Robert Cialdini calls this _consistency_ or _commitment_.[3] Scammers attack the most generous part of our nature. They are like vultures looking out for the kindest people. Somehow by continuing to fund the Nigerian's lifestyle, we believe that everything will work out. History is littered with such scams. ### fraudsters in history In the early eighteenth century, the Mississippi Company, owned by the French Royal Bank, offered investors the chance to make enormous rewards by buying shares in the new Louisiana Territories in America. The currency of France came to depend on the illusory trade of this company. Many French people lost everything they owned to the fraudulent Mississippi Company, and the French currency collapsed. At the same time, British investors were gulled into buying shares in the South Sea Bubble. The Panama Canal scam bankrupted invetstors in the Victorian era. Clever, wealthy and accomplished people lost everything. [here is an illustration that appears identical to the illustration at this url: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Page:Memoirs_of_Extraordinary_Popular_Delusio... ] A contemporary illustration showing investors in the South Sea Bubble falling like over-ripe fruit into the sea Dishonest dealings also featured in the Wall Street Crash that precipitated the Great Depression in the 1930s. Share prices were inflated in an ever-increasing spiral. With the Crash, the banks, which had poured investors' money into this illusion, were forced to foreclose on mortgages; property prices collapsed. Later on, the same trickery happened on a grand scale with the banking crash of 2008. Bankers really believed that they could package up "sub-prime" debts and so give them value. So, property mortgages were offered to people who had no chance of making the payments. Two economists were awarded Nobel prizes for "proving" that the economy would never collapse again. Trillions of dollars leached out of the economy because of this fanciful belief. Once the mind is convinced, it continues in the same direction -- _inertia_, the commitment of consistency, bedevils human belief. This highlights another innate problem of such scams: if other people flock to invest, we will be tempted to follow suit. This pattern of jumping on the bandwagon is sometimes called _social proof_ or _flocking_. Any examination of history shows that people can be brought to believe almost anything. At the extreme, this _flocking_ behavior led Germans and Austrians to vote away the right to vote and put all power in the hands of a skinny, average-height, dark-haired Austrian, who proclaimed the era of the muscled, tall, blond, Aryan superman. Fifty million people died in the aftermath of this group delusion. Hitler refused to end the war, costing another million lives, because he believed that his followers deserved to die, because they had failed him. _There is no safety in numbers when it comes to belief, and joining the crowd quite often leads to catastrophe._ ### scarcity and reciprocity Throughout history, _scarcity_ is another often-used aspect of confidence trickery. This can be the insistence that we "buy now" (or the computer will die) or the precious rarity of a "limited edition" of 10,000 coins, postage stamps, or porcelain mice. We also tend to feel obliged to give something in return. Charities will send a free ballpoint pen, a couple of cardboard table coaster, or some nametags along with a request for donations. This is the _reciprocity principle_. The supervisor who almost managed to scam me said he would fix my computer for free, and I should only pay if I was satisfied. The truth is that many people will pay up, after this seemingly friendly gesture, which is simply another way of building rapport. Then your computer will crash, and you'll be forced to buy the "add-ons". Now we turn to the methods used by scammers, recruiters, radicalizers and pick-up artists to slide past our defenses and sell us anything from a time-share to a belief system. # references and recommended reading 2: Pratkanis & Shadel, _Weapons of Fraud_, AARP, Seatle, 2005. 3: Robert Cialdini, _Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion_, Harper, NY 2007