auto58194@hushmail.com wrote Tue, 19 Dec 2000 13:15:09 -0500 (EST)

Raymond's pointed out that some gas plants normally idle are now running full-time to meet demand. To me this reads the same as using idle plants instead of building new ones. Perhaps not a bright move in terms of safety, efficiency and reserve capacity, but nothing that should have changed natural gas commitments.

In my initial message I stated the current rise in natural gas prices are caused by multiple factors. Natural gas prices were too low in recent years and this caused a shortage in supply. Narural gas has gained in popularity with utility companies in recent years because it is clean (relatively) and it is cheaper and easier to implement natural gas burning technologies than other fuel source technologies, ie - coal which would be cheaper but more difficult to meet current emission standards and "current" public expectations. On top of these factors I stated the greater portion of the increase was created by un-expected demand in California. Another issue in this problem, as in this month and next, is low water levels in the northwest causing lower than expected power generating capacity. In the past natural gas power plants were viewed as temporay or part-time solutions as they are relatively cheap to construct. If you have a power plant you don't expect to use you don't commit to much of a supply as you don't expect to use the plant. At this time many auxiliary power plants in California and surrounding states are being utilitized to generate power for the California market. There was recently a federal mandate that power suppliers in neighbouring markets not refuse to provide power to California utilities. Coupled with the low water situation, and the resulting decrease in hydro generated power, the increased use of natural gas powered generating capacity would be expected to cause an increase in the price of a commodity in which the increase in demand was unexpected or exceeded supply. If a power generating utility had built new power plants and commited to a fuel supply (and the accompanying infrastructure) the likelihood of unexpected prices increases would be much lower.

On Sun, 24 Dec 2000, Raymond D. Mereniuk wrote:

In my initial message I stated the current rise in natural gas prices are caused by multiple factors. Natural gas prices were too low in recent years and this caused a shortage in supply.

<MASSIVE SNIP> Just an observation, but most of the specific causes of this crisis point strongly to one general cause -- ie, there are too many people in California. More than the local water supply can handle. More than power can be generated for locally (unless someone builds a nuke powerplant, and you can already hear the Nimby's screaming...). More than food can be grown for without exhausting water tables to irrigate the central valley. Another general cause is that most of the current houses are built stupid. In the 1940's and 1950's houses were built that were quite habitable without constant airconditioning. They had basement windows where air could be drawn in and air was cooled in the basement with scads of thermal contact with the cool earth. There were open airways that circulated air drawn up from the basement through the first and second floor, and windows in the second floor where heated air was allowed to escape. Many of them were made of adobe or other materials with great thermal inertia, which mediated the extremes of temperature. All of these are perfectly sound thermodynamic principles, which have been abandoned because wood-frame concrete slab houses are cheaper to build and home buyers haven't been thinking about the cost of cooling the damn things as part of the purchase price. If building codes were modified, or if contractors and developers had to bear the first ten years of utility costs out of house prices, we'd probably see a substantial reduction in the so-called "need" for power. Bear

At 10:41 AM -0800 12/25/00, Tim May wrote:

At 9:25 AM -0800 12/25/00, Ray Dillinger wrote:

...

Another general cause is that most of the current houses are built stupid. In the 1940's and 1950's houses were built that were quite habitable without constant airconditioning. They had basement windows where air could be drawn in and air was cooled in the basement with scads of thermal contact with the cool earth.

California houses have almost _never_ had basements. Check it out. Check the history of houses built throughout the state, going back a century or more.

The main "reason" for basements is to put a foundation below the frost line. Mainly for (I lived for 5 years in San Diego--no A/C. Lived for 4 years in Santa Barbara--no A/C. Lived for 12 years in Santa Clara--A/C in one of my apartments, which I only used half a dozen times. Lived in Santa Cruz for 14 years--no A/C.)

And I should have pointed out that many of these places I lived in during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, HAD BEEN BUILT IN EARLIER DECADES, precisely the decades during which Ray assures us basements were the norm. Nope, no basements. No basement in the house I lived in in San Diego in the 1950s. Built on a slab. No air conditioning, either. No need. And the buildings I lived in during the 1970s had neither basements nor air conditioning. No need for either. Further, more and more Californians live in multi-story apartment buildings and condos. No basements, though underground parking garages are common. (No "natural cooling" effects, natch.) Where Ray gets the idea that houses in California used to commonly have basements--and "thick adobe walls"--is beyond me. They didn't, not counting certain old historical Spanish-era buildings which had thick walls (but almost never basements!). Office buildings typically have air conditioning, but this has to do with having hundreds or even thousands of people working in a sealed enviroment. Basements have nothing to do with this. The "solution" to "shortages" is, as with all things, market pricing. --Tim May -- Timothy C. May tcmay@got.net Corralitos, California Political: Co-founder Cypherpunks/crypto anarchy/Cyphernomicon Technical: physics/soft errors/Smalltalk/Squeak/agents/games/Go Personal: b.1951/UCSB/Intel '74-'86/retired/investor/motorcycles/guns

At 01:42 PM 12/25/00 -0500, Tim May wrote:

California houses have almost _never_ had basements. Check it out.

A Calif native friend of mine had griped to me (years ago) that the Princeton, NJ based SATs were biassed: they had an analogy like furnace:basement::stove:______ and my SoCal friend complained that furnaces are in walls or maybe an attic, and he had never seen a basement. Coming from places where triple-paned glass is the norm, I found this absurd, but soon realized it was likely. Tens of millions of Californians have *no idea* of the many-armed oil-fed beast that lives in basements..

At 8:51 PM -0500 12/25/00, David Honig wrote:

At 01:42 PM 12/25/00 -0500, Tim May wrote:

...

California houses have almost _never_ had basements. Check it out.

A Calif native friend of mine had griped to me (years ago) that the Princeton, NJ based SATs were biassed: they had an analogy like

furnace:basement::stove:______

and my SoCal friend complained that furnaces are in walls or maybe an attic, and he had never seen a basement. Coming from places where triple-paned glass is the norm, I found this absurd, but soon realized it was likely. Tens of millions of Californians have *no idea* of the many-armed oil-fed beast that lives in basements..

Culturocentrism at work. A: champagne:waterford::brie:_____ vs. B: colt45: crack hoe::a baseball bat:_____ Correct answer to A: "If one refers to the crystal, the answer is surely c), but if one refers the cracker, one must choose b), but only, of course, if the brie is suitably soft." Correct answer to B: "Whatha _fuck_!!" And then there's clipper:spies::toilet plunger:_____ and shakespeare:borg::locutus:_____ --Tim May -- Timothy C. May tcmay@got.net Corralitos, California Political: Co-founder Cypherpunks/crypto anarchy/Cyphernomicon Technical: physics/soft errors/Smalltalk/Squeak/agents/games/Go Personal: b.1951/UCSB/Intel '74-'86/retired/investor/motorcycles/guns

At 09:14 PM 12/25/00 -0500, dmolnar wrote:

On Mon, 25 Dec 2000, David Honig wrote:

...

but soon realized it was likely. Tens of millions of Californians have *no idea* of the many-armed oil-fed beast that lives in basements..

They've never read a story which mentions such a thing?

-David

"Read" ???

On Mon, 25 Dec 2000, David Honig wrote:

...

...

but soon realized it was likely. Tens of millions of Californians have *no idea* of the many-armed oil-fed beast that lives in basements..

They've never read a story which mentions such a thing?

-David

"Read" ???

Oh, right. Maybe the SAT is biased towards people who read. Since I read, that doesn't seem so bad to me. -David (exulting in the logic of ... oh, wait)

...

...

but soon realized it was likely. Tens of millions of Californians have *no idea* of the many-armed oil-fed beast that lives in basements..

They've never read a story which mentions such a thing?

"Read" ???

Cthulhu. Gravity-hot-air heating systems. Steam radiators. In the basement, no one can hear you scream... Thanks! Bill Bill Stewart, bill.stewart@pobox.com PGP Fingerprint D454 E202 CBC8 40BF 3C85 B884 0ABE 4639

At 11:22 PM -0800 12/26/00, Raymond D. Mereniuk wrote:

Tim May wrote

...

Lost on your typically smug Canadian analysis has been any objective analysis of markets for power. Do you know, for example, that California as a state is a _net exporter_ of power to the Northwest and especially to Western Canada at certain times of the year? In the fall and winter, in fact, when hydroelectric generation rates in BC and Washington are reduced.

I don't know where you get your information but I doubt your statements. California is a net exporter of power is suspect, lets see the details here.

I said "at certain times of the year." British Columbia is tied by treaty arrangements (Columbia River Treaty, 1961) to the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), and is, VERY SIGNIFICANTLY, now part of same grid that is the ISO, the Independent System Operator, mostly based in California. Read the following and weep for your beloved Canadian independence: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001208/ts/california_power_dc_3.html For example, "`We're about to find out next week just how interconnected the Western grid really is,'' Patrick Dorinson, spokesman for the California Independent System Operator (ISO) told Reuters. "The ISO operates about 75 percent of the California power transmission grid, the biggest part of a network of high voltage lines that spans from northern British Columbia to the northwest Baja California and as far east as the Rocky Mountains. " Between the Columbia River Treaty power-sharing and the Western Grid, it's all one main grid. Importantly, my point that California exports power _at certain times of the year_ is covered in the material below: For example: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/001205/n05491394.html "CONCERNS OVER NORTHWEST SUPPLY CRUNCH The crisis has now spread to the northwest states of Washington and Oregon, where electricity is often used for heating. Those states export power to California in summer to help it meet its load but flows reverse in winter as heating demand grows in the northern states. ... ``We have always taken for granted that California will help out the Northwest in winter as we help them in summer,'' saidDulcy Mahar, spokeswoman for the Portland, Ore.-based Bonneville Power Administration, noting the Northwest is hoping that Canada will be able to provide some help in an emergency." and from http://nepa.eh.doe.gov/eis/eis0171/0171chap3.htm "The peak load demands of the Pacific Northwest and California occur at different times. The Pacific Northwest peak demands occur in the winter, and California's peak demands occur in the summer. During the summer, the hydro-based Pacific Northwest and BPA systems tend to have excess capacity, which can be used to help meet California's summer peak demands. California's thermal-based system tends to have excess capacity in the winter, which can help the Pacific Northwest meet its winter peak. Full use of both systems can reduce the need for new resources in each system. BPA currently has several seasonal energy and capacity for energy exchange contracts in effect with a number of California utilities.

Sorry, this is where you are showing your Childishly naive understanding of the energy business. In the energy business (natural gas wise) if you commit to the supply and build infrastructure you get lower prices.

I re-state my initial premise, Californians have a lot to learm about energy economics! If you don't commit, you pay more!

--Tim May -- Timothy C. May tcmay@got.net Corralitos, California Political: Co-founder Cypherpunks/crypto anarchy/Cyphernomicon Technical: physics/soft errors/Smalltalk/Squeak/agents/games/Go Personal: b.1951/UCSB/Intel '74-'86/retired/investor/motorcycles/guns

Tim May

I said "at certain times of the year."

British Columbia is tied by treaty arrangements (Columbia River Treaty, 1961) to the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), and is, VERY SIGNIFICANTLY, now part of same grid that is the ISO, the Independent System Operator, mostly based in California.

Read the following and weep for your beloved Canadian independence:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001208/ts/california_power_dc_3.html

The independence is not an issue to most Western Canadians. We are a subservient bunch to Eastern Canada as it is now. Central Canada is where the money and power is seated and the way Canada is setup it will always be that way. Being independent or joining the USA is a subject which is often mentioned in Western Canada. Another purpose served by your Electoral College is that it gives each senator in a state a vote. This helps even out the power between major population centers and those states with low populations. Couple this with your senate and you have a system which balances geographical related issues against that of major population centers. Most Western Canadians would prefer such a system. Back to the main subject, what are your numbers for exports of power from the American Northwest to the Canadian Southwest? I am told by the powers that be that the number is negative. Again you would have to travel this area to understand how the environment has been altered in the name of energy production. Virtually Raymond D. Mereniuk Raymond@fbn.bc.ca "Need Someone To Tell You What To Do?" FBN - The Consultants http://www.fbn.bc.ca/consultg.html

At 05:29 AM 1/4/01 -0500, Ken Brown wrote:

I *guess* "kitchen"

sharp lad

because in the UK "stove" is an old-fashioned name for a cooking device, stuff we used before the invention of gas and electric cookers (in fact, before the invention of the cast-iron range).

Yes, artifact to cook on But for us a "furnace" is an extremely large thing that you get

steel out of... not something anyone would find in a basement. Over here you put teenagers or washing machines or junk in your basement, not furnaces. Actually, in London, they are almost always converted into flats & rented out.

So what do you call the artifacts that warm your homes, and where are they located? Boilers and radiators? Embedded wires? Fireplaces? Peat fires? Mad-cow-dung fires?

Anyway, surely basements are urban vs. rural? A way of getting more room in a restricted space. Do people build them out in the country?

Tim enlightened us IIRC that they have to do with the frost line... you want to have your lowest slab below it.